# The Future of the Irish Nursing Home Landscape

## TL;DR

This paper analyzes Ireland's nursing home landscape and predicts future needs, highlighting population growth and geographic disparities in healthcare.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a machine learning model and interactive mapping tool to forecast nursing home needs and disparities in Ireland.

## Key findings

- A strong correlation exists between population and nursing home beds.
- Significant geographic disparities exist in healthcare accessibility across Ireland.
- Population in Ireland is projected to increase by 72.6% by 2050.

## Abstract

There is an increasing need to provide care for older adults as Ireland’s population ages. We assess the current Irish nursing home landscape using public datasets and machine learning. We attempt to predict future nursing home needs in Ireland in the year 2050. We also analyse the geographical disparities that exist between different healthcare services in Ireland. Using publicly available data, we analyse nursing home deaths, bed-to-population ratios, and geographic disparities in healthcare accessibility. Furthermore, we use machine learning to forecast population growth in Ireland. We also use an interactive mapping tool to aid healthcare professionals and key stakeholders in understanding the available data and to plan for future resource allocation. We find a strong correlation between the population and the number of nursing home beds. We also find that there are significant geographic disparities between nursing homes, hospices, and hospitals in Ireland. We estimate that 1,252 out of 6,066 (20.64%) nursing home residents received specialist palliative care in 2021. We predict a population increase of approximately 785,695 people (72.6%) by 2050. Our mapping tool was helpful in directing analysis. There is a need for strategic expansion of the Irish nursing home sector and a focus on high-quality general palliative care in nursing homes.