# Impact of Rural Ageing on Non-Grain Agricultural Production in China: An Analysis Based on Food Security Strategy

## TL;DR

This study examines how rural aging in China affects non-grain agricultural production within the context of food security policies.

## Contribution

The novelty lies in analyzing rural aging's impact on non-grain agriculture using macro-level provincial data and food security strategy.

## Key findings

- Rural aging in China increased rapidly from 2005 to 2021 with uneven spatial distribution.
- Non-grain agricultural production initially rose but later declined, with increased spatial agglomeration.
- Rural aging significantly dampens non-grain agricultural production through changes in farmland per laborer and fiscal investment.

## Abstract

The increasing population ageing in rural China has had a far-reaching impact on agricultural production structures. However, most of the existing studies on the impact of rural ageing on NGAP are based on a micro-farmer perspective and lack consideration under macro policies. This study analyses the impact of rural ageing on NGAP within the framework of food security strategy and examines this relationship using provincial panel data based on revealing the spatial-temporal characteristics of the two. The results show that the ageing level in rural China from 2005 to 2021 exhibited a rapidly rising trend and an unbalanced distribution pattern with decreasing spatial agglomeration, while the evolution of NGAP followed an upward and then downward trend, with an increasing degree of spatial agglomeration. Under the food security strategy, rural ageing has a significant dampening effect on NGAP, which mainly stems from the partial mediating roles of the increase in the area of farmland per labourer and agricultural-related fiscal investment. In light of the future trend of population ageing in rural China, targeted measures are needed to stabilize grain production and guarantee national food security.