# Societies at risk: the association between conflict intensity and population health indicators in Venezuela

## TL;DR

This study examines how conflict intensity in Venezuela from 2001 to 2016 affected health outcomes like infant and heart disease mortality, finding significant links but not for malaria.

## Contribution

The study provides new insights into how conflict intensity uniquely affects different health indicators in a socio-political crisis context.

## Key findings

- Higher conflict intensity correlates with increased infant and heart disease mortality rates.
- No significant link was found between conflict intensity and malaria incidence.
- The UCDP best estimate of conflict deaths showed no correlation, while the high estimate did.

## Abstract

Venezuela present a complex political and humanitarian context as the country is suffering from internal conflict and socio-political crisis which led to the deterioration of the health services, hyperinflation, and migration crisis, and this presents a unique case to explore the impact of conflict intensity on health outcomes. This study investigates potential relationships between conflict intensity and key health indicators in Venezuela from 2001 to 2016, focusing on malaria, heart disease mortality, and infant mortality rates.

Employing an ecological panel data analysis approach, this research analyzes state-year level data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and the Venezuelan Health Observatory. The study focuses on assessing if and how conflict intensity influences malaria incidence, heart disease mortality rates, and under-1 infant mortality rate across Venezuelan regions, using panel data regression with fixed effects for state and year.

The study identifies a statistically significant correlation between conflict intensity high estimate and higher rates of infant mortality and heart disease mortality. Interestingly, no significant correlation was found between conflict intensity and malaria incidence. These findings suggest the multifaceted impacts of armed conflicts on health outcomes, indicating that while some health indicators deteriorate with rising conflict intensity, others may not exhibit direct correlations.

This study underscores the complex relationship between armed conflict intensity and health outcomes in Venezuela, highlighting significant correlations with infant mortality and heart disease mortality, but not with malaria incidence or the conflict death best estimate. The best estimate from UCDP didn’t show correlation, while the high estimate showed significant correlation. The limitations posed by the UCDP database constraints, and the absence of recent health data publication invite further research to explore the nuanced impacts of conflict on health.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-025-00377-x.