# Unravelling drivers of the future Mediterranean precipitation paradox during cyclones

## TL;DR

The Mediterranean region is expected to become drier overall but experience more intense cyclone-related rainfall, increasing flood risks.

## Contribution

High-resolution climate models reveal that moisture advection and convection processes are critical in cyclone-related precipitation.

## Key findings

- High-resolution models show moisture advection and convection are key for cyclone precipitation.
- Low-resolution models fail to capture realistic ocean dynamics and air-sea interactions.
- Increased cyclone-related rainfall is expected despite overall drying in the Mediterranean.

## Abstract

Climate models indicate that the Mediterranean region is projected to experience both general drying and increased cyclone-related precipitation, intensifying flood risks, especially under high-emission scenarios. The use of high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models allows to identify the key role of moisture advection and convection processes in cyclone-related precipitation thanks to the more realistic representation of ocean dynamics and air-sea interactions, that low-resolution global models struggle to capture.