# Distribution Patterns of Platycodon grandiflorus From the Last Interglacial Period to the Future by Ecological Niche Modeling

## TL;DR

This study models how climate change affects the future distribution of Platycodon grandiflorus, a traditional Chinese medicinal plant, using historical and projected climate data.

## Contribution

The study integrates historical, present, and future climate data with ecological niche modeling to predict distribution shifts of P. grandiflorus.

## Key findings

- The distribution of P. grandiflorus is strongly influenced by environmental variables like precipitation and temperature.
- Future climate change is expected to shift suitable habitats toward higher latitudes and slightly expand total suitable areas.
- Highly suitable habitats are projected to decrease slightly under future climate scenarios.

## Abstract

Global climate change may represent a significant threat to the distribution and quality of medicinal plants, altering cultivation areas and compromising the quality of medical materials.
Platycodon grandiflorus
, a traditional Chinese medicinal herb, has a millennia‐long medicinal and culinary use history in East Asia. Given its escalating demand, accurately evaluating the changes under different climate scenarios and predicting its potential distribution are imperative for ensuring its conservation and sustainable utilization. By integrating MaxEnt with ArcGIS, this study advances previous approaches by incorporating historical, present, and future climate data to model the distribution dynamics of
P. grandiflorus
across China. The results indicated: (1) The species' distribution strongly correlates with environmental variables, particularly bio13, prec07, prec09, and tmin07, whose cumulative value of percent contribution was 78.5%; (2) The centroids of potential geographic distribution during the LIG, LGM, and MH periods were situated further westward compared to the present distribution, with substantial contraction observed in highly suitable habitats throughout these historical periods; (3) Under present climatic conditions, the overall suitable habitat encompasses 4,185,964 km2, with highly suitable habitats constituting one‐third of this expanse, predominantly concentrated in central, southern, and northeastern China; (4) Future climate change scenarios predict that the total suitable habitat will expand to varying degrees (7% increase on average), albeit with potential reductions in highly suitable areas (3% decrease on average); and (5) The distribution of
P. grandiflorus
is likely to move toward higher latitudes in the future due to climate changes. Our findings fill a critical knowledge gap by quantifying the impact of climate change on the distribution of
P. grandiflorus
. These results offer crucial insights for developing effective conservation strategies, promoting sustainable utilization, and establishing standardized cultivation protocols for
P. grandiflorus
resources.

Global climate change might lead to alternations in cultivation areas and the quality of medical materials since it causes changes in suitable areas for growing medicinal plants.
P. grandiflorus
, a traditional Chinese medicine, has medicinal and culinary value for thousands of years in East Asia. With its increasing demand, predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of
P. grandiflorus
is crucial for its protection and the sustainable use of resources.