# Predicting COVID-19 Patient Disposition Using the National Early Warning Score 2: A Retrospective Cohort Study

## TL;DR

This study shows that the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) can effectively predict which patients with suspected COVID-19 will need hospital admission and close monitoring.

## Contribution

The study evaluates NEWS2's predictive ability for disposition of suspected COVID-19 patients in the ED, providing cutoff values and performance metrics.

## Key findings

- NEWS2 with a cutoff of 2 predicted hospital admission with 86% sensitivity and 75% specificity.
- The average AUC for predicting outcomes 24 to 72 hours after ED presentation was 0.86.
- NEWS2 is a useful tool for identifying high-risk patients with suspected COVID-19.

## Abstract

Objectives

To evaluate the effectiveness of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) in predicting the need for hospital admission and close monitoring of suspected patients with COVID-19 presenting to the Emergency Department (ED). This study aims to determine whether NEWS2 can aid in identifying high-risk patients with COVID-19 requiring urgent care and admission.

Methodology

Retrospective data from electronic health records of 300 patients with COVID-19 who presented to Mediclinic Parkview Hospital ED between January 1, 2021, and June 30, 2021, were analyzed. Collected variables included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), vital signs, and patient disposition. Statistical analysis was conducted to assess the ability of NEWS2 to predict COVID-19 patient disposition.

Results

A total of 300 patients were included, and their NEWS2 scores were analyzed to predict clinical deterioration. NEWS2, with a cutoff value of 2, predicted hospital admission with 86% sensitivity and 75% specificity. It achieved an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.86 for predicting outcomes at 24 to 72 hours from the time of initial presentation to the ED.

Conclusions

NEWS2 demonstrates high sensitivity in predicting the disposition of patients with COVID-19. Our findings support the use of NEWS2 as a useful tool for the initial assessment of patients with COVID-19 presenting to the ED, assisting in identifying patients at risk of deterioration.