# Exploring Methods to Evaluate HPAI Transmission Risk in Iowa During Peak HPAI Incidence, February 2022–December 2023

## TL;DR

This study explores how environmental factors like water surface area and Canada geese abundance relate to HPAI risk in Iowa, but notes the need for better farm location data.

## Contribution

The paper identifies data gaps and evaluates the feasibility of using environmental factors to assess HPAI transmission risk.

## Key findings

- Higher Canada geese abundance was significantly associated with HPAI-negative counties.
- APHIS outcome data had the highest quality score for HPAI analysis.
- Poultry farm location data were unavailable, limiting the study's scope.

## Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), H5N1 strain, began to circulate in the United States on 8 February 2022. The state of Iowa lost the most domestic poultry to HPAI from February 2022–December 2023. This study conducted preliminary evaluations on two environmental risk factors, (inland water surface area, Canada geese abundance) and the availability of the data needed to evaluate them. Higher Canada geese abundance was significantly associated (X2 = 4.29, p = 0.04) with HPAI negative counties. Farm location data were unavailable, limiting our analysis. Van den Broeck et al.’s framework was used to evaluate the available data. Outcome data from Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) had the highest data quality score (11). Canada geese and inland water surface area are predictors worth evaluating, but poultry farm location data are needed for a comprehensive evaluation.