# Age-Specific Mortality Forecasting in Kazakhstan: Alternative Approaches to the Lee–Carter Model

## TL;DR

This paper explores improved methods for forecasting age-specific mortality in Kazakhstan, finding that separate analysis of children and adults yields better predictions.

## Contribution

The study introduces a subpopulation-based forecasting approach that outperforms traditional Lee–Carter models in Kazakhstan.

## Key findings

- Separate analysis of children and adults improved forecasting accuracy due to differing mortality trends.
- Forecasts for 7 years showed <10% error, while 8–10 years had 10–20% error.
- Mortality is expected to decline in most age groups until 2033, with a temporary increase in those over 80.

## Abstract

Age-specific mortality forecasting in Kazakhstan plays a crucial role in public health planning and healthcare management. By predicting mortality rates across different age groups, policymakers, healthcare providers, and researchers can make informed decisions that improve health outcomes and allocate resources more effectively. We analyzed Kazakhstan’s annual mortality data from 1991 to 2023. The Lee–Carter model and its extensions were used to predict mortality. But they did not give satisfactory results for predicting mortality. Including external socio-economic factors in the model did not improve the forecasting accuracy. The accuracy of the forecast increased with a separate analysis of the subpopulations of children and adults. This was because, since 1991 in the children subpopulation there has been a pronounced linear downward trend, while in the adult subpopulation the global trend in mortality dynamics is nonlinear. As a result, it is possible to make forecasts for 7 years with a high degree of accuracy (error < 10%) and forecast for the 8th, 9th, and 10th years with a “good” degree of accuracy (error 10–20%). In 2024–2033, a further mortality decline is expected in most age groups. Only in groups over 80 years old is a slight increase in mortality predicted in the coming year, but then a downward trend will be observed again.