# Evaluating Past Range Shifts and Niche Dynamics of Giant Pandas Since the Last Interglacial

## TL;DR

This study examines how giant pandas have shifted their range and adapted to climate changes over thousands of years, offering insights for their future conservation.

## Contribution

The study provides new insights into the historical range and niche dynamics of giant pandas in response to past climate changes.

## Key findings

- Giant pandas experienced a 28.27% range contraction during the Last Glacial Maximum followed by a 75.8% expansion.
- Their climatic niche remained stable until the Mid-Holocene, after which both distribution and niche changed significantly.
- The findings suggest giant pandas can adapt to future climate changes by shifting their distribution to suitable niches.

## Abstract

Understanding how species respond to climate change is essential for conservation. Giant pandas, an iconic species endemic to China, have experienced significant climate fluctuations since the Late Pleistocene, impacting their distribution. This study analyzed the distribution and climatic niche of giant pandas during major climate periods, including the Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene, and present day. Results reveal that while giant pandas faced range contractions and expansions, their climatic niche remained relatively stable, suggesting niche conservatism. However, since the Mid-Holocene, both their distribution and climatic niche have significantly changed, with their current niche representing only a fraction of their historical range. This indicates that giant pandas can adapt to future climate changes by shifting their distribution to track suitable climatic niches. Conservation efforts should focus on habitat connectivity, regularly adjusting priority areas to mitigate the impacts of ongoing climate change. This study provides valuable insights for ensuring the long-term survival of giant pandas under future climate scenarios.

Understanding the response of species to past climate change provides great opportunities to know their adaptive capacity for resilience under future climate change. Since the Late Pleistocene, dramatic climate fluctuations have significantly impacted the distribution of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). However, how the spatial distribution and climatic niche of giant pandas shifted in response to past climate change remain poorly understood. Based on the known distribution records (fossil and present day) and the most updated climate projections for the Last Interglacial (LIG; ~120 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~22 ka), Mid-Holocene (MH; ~6 ka), and the present day, we predicted and compared the distribution and climatic niche of giant pandas. The results show that giant pandas have undergone a considerable range contraction (a 28.27% reduction) followed by a marked range expansion (a 75.8% increase) during the LIG–LGM–MH period, while its climatic niche remained relatively stable. However, from the MH to the current, both the distribution area and climatic niche of giant pandas have undergone significant changes. Our findings suggest that the giant panda may adjust its distribution to track stable climatic niches in response to future climate change. Future conservation planning should designate accessible areas for giant pandas and adjust priority conservation areas as needed.