A model based on Chinese thyroid imaging reporting and data systems for predicting Bethesda III/IV thyroid nodules

TL;DR

This study developed a model combining C-TIRADS and ultrasound features to better predict Bethesda III/IV thyroid nodules, especially for larger nodules.

Contribution

A new predictive model was developed that outperforms C-TIRADS alone for predicting Bethesda III/IV thyroid nodules.

Findings

The model's AUC was 0.746 overall, outperforming C-TIRADS alone.

For nodules larger than 10mm, the model had an AUC of 0.779.

Key predictors included C-TIRADS category, echotexture, blood flow, and posterior echo.

Abstract

This study aimed to explore the performance of a model based on Chinese Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data Systems (C-TIRADS), clinical characteristics, and other ultrasound characteristics for the prediction of Bethesda III/IV thyroid nodules before fine needle aspiration (FNA).

A total of 855 thyroid nodules from 810 patients were included. All nodules underwent ultrasound examination before FNA. All nodules were categorized according to the C-TIRADS criteria and classified into two groups, Bethesda III/IV and non-III/IV thyroid nodules, using cytologic diagnosis as the gold standard. The clinical and ultrasonographic characteristics of the nodules in the two groups were compared, and independent predictors of Bethesda III/IV nodules were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, based on which a prediction model was constructed. The predictive efficacy of the model was compared with that of C-TIRADS alone by sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC).

Our study found that the C-TIRADS category, homogeneous echotexture, blood flow signal present, and posterior echo unchanged were independent predictors for Bethesda III/IV thyroid nodules. Based on multiple logistic regression, a predictive model was established: Logit (p)= - 4.213 + 0.965 × homogeneous echotexture+ 1.050 × blood flow signal present + 0.473 × posterior echo unchanged+ 2.859 × C-TIRADS 3 + 2.804 × C-TIRADS 4A + 1.824 × C-TIRADS 4B + 0.919 × C-TIRADS 4C. The AUC of the model among all nodules was 0.746 (95%CI: 0.710-0.782), 0.779 (95%CI: 0.730-0.829) among nodules with a diameter (D) > 10mm, and 0.718 (95%CI: 0.667-0.769) among nodules with D ≤ 10mm, which were significantly higher than that of the C-TIRADS alone.

We developed a predictive model for Bethesda III/IV thyroid nodules that is better for nodules with D > 10mm FNA operators can choose the optimal puncture strategy based on the prediction results to improve the rate of definitive diagnosis of the first FNA of Bethesda III/IV nodules and thus reduce repeat FNA.

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