# Statistical Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Sequence in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

## TL;DR

This study analyzes earthquake patterns in northeastern Tibet to better understand seismic risk and challenges in predicting earthquakes using statistical methods.

## Contribution

The study introduces the use of BEPIT to supplement incomplete earthquake catalogs in a seismically active but data-limited region.

## Key findings

- Low b values indicate high regional stress levels in northeastern Tibet.
- Aftershocks decay quickly, as shown by high p-parameters in the ETAS model.
- Mainshocks are mostly background events, not foreshock-driven.

## Abstract

As the forefront of inland extension on the Indian plate, the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, marked by low strain rates and high stress levels, is one of the regions with the highest seismic risk. Analyzing seismicity through statistical methods holds significant scientific value for understanding tectonic conditions and assessing earthquake risk. However, seismic monitoring capacity in this region remains limited, and earthquake frequency is low, complicating efforts to improve earthquake catalogs through enhanced identification and localization techniques. Bi-scale empirical probability integral transformation (BEPIT), a statistical method, can address these data gaps by supplementing missing events shortly after moderate to large earthquakes, resulting in a more reliable statistical data set. In this study, we analyzed six earthquake sequences with magnitudes of MS ≥ 6.0 that occurred in northeastern Tibet since 2009, following the upgrade of the regional seismic network. Using BEPIT, we supplemented short-term missing aftershocks in these sequences, creating a more complete earthquake catalog. ETAS model parameters and b values for these sequences were then estimated using maximum likelihood methods to analyze parameter variability across sequences. The findings indicate that the b value is low, reflecting relatively high regional stress. The background seismicity rate is very low, with most mainshocks in these sequences being background events rather than foreshock-driven events. The p-parameter of the ETAS model is high, indicating that aftershocks decay relatively quickly, while the α-parameter is also elevated, suggesting that aftershocks are predominantly induced by the mainshock. These conditions suggest that earthquake prediction in this region is challenging through seismicity analysis alone, and alternative approaches integrating non-seismic data, such as electromagnetic and fluid monitoring, may offer more viable solutions. This study provides valuable insights into earthquake forecasting in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.