# Decennial Ward‐Level Influence of Demographic, Farming, and Economic Predictors on All‐Cause Mortality

## TL;DR

This study explores how farming intensity and other factors influence mortality rates across Northern Ireland over 10 years.

## Contribution

It is the first study in Northern Ireland to link farming intensity with mortality variation at the Ward level.

## Key findings

- Farming Intensity Scores were predictive of mortality risk in Ward areas.
- Demographic factors like elderly population and long-term illnesses also influenced mortality rates.
- Economic and social factors, such as full-time workers and residents living alone, were significant predictors.

## Abstract

This study has arisen in response to a lack of studies examining how farming affects mortality patterns across areas of Northern Ireland (NI) over a 10‐year period. This paper aims to investigate whether agriculturally intensive electoral Wards have higher mortality rates compared to non‐agriculturally based Wards, controlling for relevant factors.

The population census and farm census information was downloaded from the Northern Ireland Neighbourhood Service (NINIS) website to construct two original mortality‐based datasets. Linear regression was used for the analysis.

Decennial Ward‐Level Influence of Demographic, Farming, and Economic Predictors on All‐Cause Mortality.

Five hundred and eighty‐two Ward areas of Northern Ireland.

Mortality risk within Ward areas.

Findings showed larger amounts of natural log of the population, 65 to 100+ year‐olds, limiting long‐term illnesses, Farming Intensity Scores, residents living alone and full‐time workers within Wards were predictive of mortality risk within those Wards.

This study is the first of its kind in NI to provide evidence for Farming Intensity Scores explaining the variation of mortality rates between areas, in addition to many of the usual predictors.