# Accuracy of smartwatches in predicting distance running performance

## TL;DR

This study shows that smartwatches can accurately predict running performance for distances like 5 km, 10 km, and half marathons, helping amateur runners set realistic goals.

## Contribution

The study confirms high accuracy (over 97%) of the HUAWEI WATCH GT Runner in predicting running performance across multiple distances.

## Key findings

- Smartwatches showed strong correlation (r ≥ 0.95) between predicted and actual running times for 5 km, 10 km, and half marathons.
- The error rate between predicted and actual performance was less than 3% across all tested distances.
- Intraclass correlation coefficients were ≥ 0.9, indicating high precision in performance predictions.

## Abstract

This study examined the accuracy of smartwatches in predicting running performance.

A total of 154 amateur runners (123 males and 31 females) were recruited. After wearing the HUAWEI WATCH GT Runner for a minimum of six weeks, the runners' actual completion times for 5 km, 10 km, and half marathon distances were measured, resulting in 288 test instances. The predicted completion times for the same distances displayed on the watch on the test day were recorded simultaneously.

The actual and predicted performances for the 5, 10, and 21.1 km distances were highly correlated, with r ≥ 0.95 (p < 0.001) and r2 ≥ 0.9 for all three distances, an error rate between the measured and predicted values of less than 3%, and intraclass correlation coefficient ≥0.9. The bias ± 95% limits of agreement were −20.4 ± 44.2 s for 5 km, 4.1 ± 299.1 s for 10 km, and 143.8 ± 400.4 s for the half marathon.

This study confirmed that the smartwatch exhibits high precision in predicting 5 km, 10 km, and half marathon performances, with an accuracy exceeding 97%. The performance prediction features of smartwatches can effectively guide amateur runners in setting reasonable competition goals and preparing for races.