Net Reproduction Number as a Real-Time Metric of Population Reproducibility

TL;DR

This study introduces a new metric, Rt, to better estimate population reproductive potential by adjusting for sex-ratio imbalances and female mortality.

Contribution

The study proposes a new reproduction rate (Rt) that accounts for sex-ratio and female mortality, improving on the traditional TFR.

Findings

Rt reached replacement level a year earlier than TFR in the Korean population.

Time-series estimates of Rt and TFR were not significantly different.

Rt is more interpretable for the public than TFR.

Abstract

The total fertility rate (TFR) is a biased estimate of the population reproductive potential when there is a sex-ratio imbalance at birth, and it does not account for the mortality of women of childbearing age. This study aimed to estimate the reproduction rate (Rt), which adjusts for the sex-ratio imbalance and the mortality of women of childbearing age, and to assess the differences in the timing of when the population reached the replacement level of the TFR and Rt. We first estimated the Rt using the probability of survival in women and the number of female births. Then, using a time-series analysis, we compared the time series of the TFR and Rt in the Korean population between 1975 and 2022. We found the Rt showed a below replacement level of the population a year earlier than the TFR. However, the estimate of the time-series analysis of Rt was not significantly different from the estimates of the TFR. Our finding suggests that the Rt can provide timely information on the adjusted population reproductive potential and is easier for the public to interpret compared to TFR.

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