# Projected speaker numbers and dormancy risks of Canada’s Indigenous languages

## TL;DR

This study projects that most Indigenous languages in Canada will face significant speaker number declines and dormancy risks by 2101, highlighting a severe threat to linguistic diversity.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a novel probabilistic model to project speaker numbers and dormancy risks for Indigenous languages using census data.

## Key findings

- Speaker numbers for 16 Indigenous languages could decline by over 90% between 2001 and 2101.
- Dormancy risks could exceed 50% for five Indigenous languages by 2101.
- Nine languages may account for over 99% of Indigenous language speakers in Canada by 2101.

## Abstract

UNESCO launched the International Decade of Indigenous Languages in 2022 to draw attention to the impending loss of nearly half of the world’s linguistic diversity. However, how the speaker numbers and dormancy risks of these languages will evolve remains largely unexplored. Here, we use Canadian census data and probabilistic population projection to estimate changes in speaker numbers and dormancy risks of 27 Indigenous languages. Our model suggests that speaker numbers could, over the period 2001–2101, decline by more than 90% in 16 languages and that dormancy risks could surpass 50% among five. Since the declines are greater among already less commonly spoken languages, just nine languages could account for more than 99% of all Canadian Indigenous language speakers in 2101. Finally, dormancy risks tend to be higher among isolates and within specific language families, providing additional evidence about the uneven nature of language endangerment worldwide. Our approach further illustrates the magnitude of the crisis in linguistic diversity and suggests that demographic projection could be a useful tool in assessing the vitality of the world’s languages.