Changes in Young Adult Handgun Carrying in the US
Max A. Halvorson, Margaret R. Kuklinski, Emma Gause, Julia P. Schleimer, Heather F. Terral, Elizabeth H. Weybright, Sabrina Oesterle, Ali Rowhani-Rahbar
TL;DR
This study examines how the characteristics of young adults carrying handguns in the US changed between 2019 and 2021.
Contribution
The study provides new insights into trends in handgun carrying among young adults during a recent two-year period.
Findings
There was a notable increase in the proportion of young adults carrying handguns.
Demographic patterns of handgun carriers shifted during the study period.
Abstract
This cohort study evaluates changes in characteristics of young aduts who carried handguns from 2019 to 2021.
Genes, proteins, chemicals, diseases, species, mutations and cell lines named across the full text — each resolved to its canonical identifier and authoritative record.
| Characteristic | Individuals, No. (%) | Any past-year handgun carrying | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. (%) | Absolute % increase | Relative % increase | ||||
| Age 26 | Age 28 | |||||
| Gender | ||||||
| Cisgender female | 1806 (54.1) | 94 (5.2) | 127 (7.0) | .003 | 1.8 | 34.6 |
| Cisgender male | 1489 (44.6) | 273 (18.3) | 302 (20.3) | .04 | 2.0 | 10.9 |
| Transgender female/woman | 4 (0.1) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Transgender male/man | 6 (0.2) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Gender nonconforming | 26 (0.8) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Race and ethnicity | ||||||
| Asian or Asian American | 62 (1.9) | 5 (8.1) | 8 (12.9) | .37 | 4.8 | 59.3 |
| Black or African American | 116 (3.5) | 8 (6.9) | 11 (9.5) | .55 | 2.6 | 37.7 |
| Hispanic | 615 (18.4) | 54 (8.8) | 73 (11.9) | .01 | 3.1 | 35.2 |
| Middle Eastern or North African | 9 (0.3) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| American Indian or Alaska Native | 181 (5.4) | 24 (13.3) | 30 (16.6) | .18 | 3.3 | 24.8 |
| Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander | 21 (0.6) | NA | 5 (23.8) | NA | NA | NA |
| White, non-Hispanic | 2555 (76.4) | 295 (11.5) | 332 (13.0) | .02 | 1.5 | 13.0 |
| Multiracial | 116 (3.5) | 14 (12.1) | 18 (15.5) | .39 | 3.4 | 28.1 |
| Other | 248 (7.4) | 21 (8.5) | 30 (12.1) | .08 | 3.6 | 42.4 |
| Rural vs urban | ||||||
| Farm or country | 341 (10.2) | 64 (18.8) | 66 (19.4) | .88 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| Small city (<50 000) | 1483 (44.3) | 161 (10.9) | 194 (13.1) | .006 | 2.2 | 20.2 |
| Medium city (50 000-100 000) | 846 (25.3) | 89 (10.5) | 109 (12.9) | .03 | 2.4 | 22.9 |
| Urban (>100 000) | 675 (20.2) | 54 (8.0) | 63 (9.3) | .31 | 1.3 | 16.3 |
| Educational attainment | ||||||
| Less than HS | 262 (7.8) | 37 (14.1) | 37 (14.1) | >.99 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| HS diploma | 502 (15.0) | 55 (11.0) | 85 (16.9) | <.001 | 5.9 | 53.6 |
| Some secondary | 1707 (51.1) | 212 (12.4) | 244 (14.3) | .02 | 1.9 | 15.3 |
| BA or higher | 868 (26.0) | 63 (7.3) | 64 (7.4) | >.99 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| Personal income, US $ | ||||||
| <30 000 | 1838 (55.1) | 148 (8.1) | 176 (9.6) | .03 | 1.5 | 18.5 |
| 30 000-59 999 | 1184 (35.5) | 155 (13.1) | 187 (15.8) | .005 | 2.7 | 20.6 |
| 60 000-89 999 | 243 (7.3) | 50 (20.6) | 53 (21.8) | .71 | 1.2 | 5.8 |
| ≥90 000 | 68 (2.0) | 14 (20.6) | 15 (22.1) | >.99 | 1.5 | 7.3 |
| Characteristic | Participants, No. (%) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Continuing carriers (n = 308) | New carriers (n = 146) | ||
| Gender | |||
| Cisgender female | 65 (22.0) | 62 (45.9) | <.001 |
| Cisgender male | 230 (77.7) | 72 (53.3) | |
| Transgender female/woman | NA | NA | |
| Transgender male/man | NA | NA | |
| Gender nonconforming | NA | NA | |
| Race and ethnicity | |||
| Asian or Asian American | 7 (2.3) | NA | NA |
| Black or African American | 8 (2.6) | NA | NA |
| Hispanic | 48 (15.6) | 29 (19.9) | .32 |
| Middle Eastern or North African | NA | NA | NA |
| American Indian or Alaska Native | 25 (8.1) | 7 (4.8) | .27 |
| Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander | NA | NA | NA |
| White, non-Hispanic | 229 (77.4) | 103 (75.7) | .80 |
| Multiracial | 17 (5.5) | NA | NA |
| Other | 21 (6.8) | 9 (6.2) | .95 |
| Rural vs urban | |||
| Farm or country | 24 (8.2) | 10 (7.4) | .97 |
| Small city (<50 000) | 47 (16.1) | 20 (14.8) | |
| Medium city (50 000-100 000) | 128 (43.8) | 60 (44.4) | |
| Urban (>100 000) | 93 (31.8) | 45 (33.3) | |
| Educational attainment | |||
| Less than HS | 25 (8.5) | 12 (8.9) | .28 |
| HS diploma | 51 (17.3) | 34 (25.2) | |
| Some secondary | 173 (58.6) | 71 (52.6) | |
| BA or higher | 46 (15.6) | 18 (13.3) | |
| Personal income, US $ | |||
| <30 000 | 100 (33.9) | 76 (55.5) | <.001 |
| 30 000-59 999 | 135 (45.8) | 53 (38.7) | |
| 60 000-89 999 | 47 (15.9) | 6 (4.4) | |
| ≥90 000 | 13 (4.4) | NA | |
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Taxonomy
TopicsGun Ownership and Violence Research · Traumatic Ocular and Foreign Body Injuries · Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
Introduction
The early 2020s were marked by an increase in firearm-related injuries^1^ and a record number of firearm-related deaths in the US.^2^ These trends coincided with events impacting US residents’ sense of safety: the COVID-19 pandemic, racial justice protests after George Floyd’s murder, and the attack on the US Capitol. Although the increase in firearm-related harm was mirrored by a rise in firearm purchases,^3,4^ it is unknown whether handgun carrying also increased.
Young adults are at high risk of interpersonal violence and can legally purchase handguns. To ensure care that promotes safety, health care and other professionals who serve young adults should understand the characteristics of young adults who carry handguns.
Methods
Data for this cohort study are from a longitudinal study^5^ of young adults initially recruited for a community-randomized trial of the Communities That Care (CTC) prevention system, which helps communities assess and intervene on risk and protective factors related to community-specific problem behaviors in order to promote positive youth development. The sample (4407 participants) included 76% of all public school students in fifth grade in 2004 in 24 small- to moderate-sized communities across 7 states.^5^ Participants were assessed every 1 to 3 years through age 28 years. Approval was granted by the University of Washington, and written parental consent was provided at grade 5, child assent at grades 5 through 12, and youth consent after age 18 years. Reporting follows Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guidelines.
Participants reported past-year handgun carrying (“How many times in the past year [12 months] have you carried a handgun [other than while hunting or as part of your job]?”) at ages 19, 21, 23, 26, and 28 years. Gender, race, ethnicity, rurality, educational attainment, and personal income were each self-reported at age 26 or 28 years (see eMethods in Supplement 1). Race and ethnicity were assessed because to understand any potential racial and ethnic disparities in risk and protective factors, levels of outcomes, and response to the CTC intervention.
The study highlighted data at age 26 years (prepandemic, 2019) and 28 years (midpandemic, 2021) because the age 26 assessment occurred just before the events described previously and the age 28 assessment just after. Absolute and relative changes in handgun carrying from 2019 (age 26 years) to 2021 (age 28 years) were examined.
At age 28 years, we also examined whether first-time handgun carriers differed sociodemographically from continuing handgun carriers. First-time handgun carriers were those who reported handgun carrying only at 28 years. Continuing carriers were those who reported carrying a handgun at age 28 years and at least 1 time point prior (19, 21, 23, or 26 years). We assessed whether handgun carrying differed in intervention vs control communities. No differences were found; therefore, we report on the full sample. *P *values were calculated using 2-sided tests and significance was set to <.05. R version 4.4.2 (R Project for Statistical Computing) was used for analyses, which were completed from July 2023 to November 2024.
Results
The analysis sample (3347 participants; 1806 [54.1%] cisgender female; 615 [18.4%] Hispanic, 181 [5.4%] American Indian, and 2555 [76.4%] White) consisted of 1483 participants (44.3%) who lived in cities with populations under 50 000 (Table 1). Handgun carrying prevalence increased from 11.0% (368) in 2019 to 12.9% (432) in 2021 (χ^2^1 = 13.0; P < .001).
Handgun carrying increased from 2019 to 2021 within each sociodemographic group studied. Absolute increases ranged up to 5.9% and relative increases ranged up to 59.3% (Table 1). Relative increases were larger for groups with lower prevalence of handgun carrying in 2019. Compared with continuing carriers, new carriers were more likely to be women and to report annual income under $30 000 (Table 2).
Discussion
This study documented a rise in young adult handgun carrying in a community longitudinal study from 2019 (prepandemic) to 2021 (midpandemic). Increases in past-year handgun carrying were larger for groups with historically lower prevalence of firearm ownership, and women and individuals with low income were more likely to be first-time handgun carriers in 2021. Study limitations included a nonnationally representative sample and relatively small sample sizes for racial and gender minorities. Best practices for minimizing firearm-related injuries should be tailored to the diverse individuals who carry firearms.
The reference list from the paper itself. Each links out to its DOI / PubMed record.
- 1Bliton JN, Paul J, Smith AD, . Increases in adolescent firearm injuries were associated with school closures during COVID-19. Injury. 2023;54(8):110824. doi:10.1016/j.injury.2023.05.05537296010 PMC 10246889 · doi ↗ · pubmed ↗
- 2Gramlich J. What the data says about gun deaths in the U.S. Pew Research Center. 2023. Accessed November 2, 2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/04/26/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-u-s/
- 3Lyons VH, Haviland MJ, Azrael D, . Firearm purchasing and storage during the COVID-19 pandemic. Inj Prev. 2021;27(1):87-92. doi:10.1136/injuryprev-2020-04387232943492 · doi ↗ · pubmed ↗
- 4Miller M, Zhang W, Azrael D. Firearm purchasing during the COVID-19 pandemic: results from the 2021 National Firearms Survey. Ann Intern Med. 2022;175(2):219-225. doi:10.7326/M 21-342334928699 PMC 8697522 · doi ↗ · pubmed ↗
- 5Hawkins JD, Brown EC, Oesterle S, Arthur MW, Abbott RD, Catalano RF. Early effects of Communities That Care on targeted risks and initiation of delinquent behavior and substance use. J Adolesc Health. 2008;43(1):15-22. doi:10.1016/j.jadohealth.2008.01.02218565433 PMC 3867289 · doi ↗ · pubmed ↗