# Understanding the distributional effects of recurrent floods in the Philippines

## TL;DR

The study shows that not fully recovering from floods in the Philippines leads to bigger long-term losses, especially for middle and low-income households.

## Contribution

The paper introduces an agent-based model to quantify the cumulative effects of incomplete recovery from recurrent floods.

## Key findings

- Incomplete recoveries increase cumulative consumption and well-being losses by 40%.
- Low-income households suffer the highest well-being losses.
- Middle-income households face the largest relative losses from incomplete recoveries.

## Abstract

Successful recovery from extreme weather events is key to avoid long-term poverty implications. Yet, in disaster prone regions, there may not always be enough time to recover between events. There is a common narrative that the resulting incomplete recoveries aggravate adverse impacts, but approaches allowing for a systematic quantitative assessment are missing. Here, we extend an agent-based model to study welfare effects in the Philippines depending on household exposure and income. We find that incomplete recoveries increase cumulative consumption and well-being losses across the study period 2000–2018 by 40%. While low-income households suffer the highest well-being losses, the effect of incomplete recoveries is most relevant for middle-income households. Consequently, losses can be critically underestimated when drawing conclusions about the impacts of recurrent events based on the impacts of individual events. Accounting for incomplete recoveries may help to better prepare for an intensification of extreme events under climate change.

•We present an agent-based model for household recoveries under recurrent shocks•Incomplete recoveries lead to additional aggregated consumption and well-being losses•Low-income households experience the largest well-being losses•Relative losses caused by incomplete recoveries are largest for middle-income households

We present an agent-based model for household recoveries under recurrent shocks

Incomplete recoveries lead to additional aggregated consumption and well-being losses

Low-income households experience the largest well-being losses

Relative losses caused by incomplete recoveries are largest for middle-income households

Earth sciences; Economics; Global change; Social sciences