Inflammatory lipid biomarkers and transplant-free mortality risk in hepatitis B-related cirrhosis and hepatic encephalopathy

TL;DR

This study identifies the neutrophil-to-HDL cholesterol ratio (NHR) as a useful predictor of mortality risk in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis and hepatic encephalopathy.

Contribution

The study introduces NHR as a novel and accessible biomarker for predicting transplant-free mortality in patients with HBV-related overt hepatic encephalopathy.

Findings

NHR was identified as an independent risk factor for 12-month transplant-free mortality.

NHR demonstrated comparable predictive accuracy to the MELD score in predicting mortality risk.

Combining NHR and MELD allowed classification into four risk subgroups with distinct mortality rates.

Abstract

Inflammatory reactions and dyslipidemia are associated with the pathogenesis and prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of these parameters in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis and overt hepatic encephalopathy (HBV-related OHE).

We conducted an analysis of 1,404 participants diagnosed with HBV-related OHE between January 2008 and July 2023. The prognostic significance of the neutrophil-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio (NHR), lymphocyte-to-HDL-C ratio (LHR), and monocyte-to-HDL-C ratio (MHR) was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Restrictive cubic splines (RCS) were employed to explore the relationship between NHR and 12-month transplant-free (TF) mortality. This study included a prospective test cohort of 328 patients.

NHR was identified as an independent risk factor for 12-month TF mortality. The AUC for NHR (0.776) was similar to that of the model end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (AUC: 0.777). In the test cohort, NHR demonstrated AUC values comparable to MELD, with significantly higher AUCs than LHR and MHR (both p < 0.05). Based on cutoff values for NHR and MELD, patients were classified into four risk subgroups: very-low (NHR < 10 and MELD <18), low (NHR ≥ 10 and MELD <18), moderate (NHR < 10 and MELD ≥18), and high (NHR ≥ 10 and MELD ≥18). The 12-month TF mortality rates in the training cohort were 7.2, 23.5, 30.8, and 51.4%, respectively, for these subgroups, while in the test cohort, the rates were 8.7, 20.5, 30.7, and 46.0%.

NHR is a valuable and accessible prognostic indicator for 12-month TF mortality in patients with HBV-related OHE. Patients with both NHR ≥ 10 and MELD ≥18 are at the highest risk of mortality.

Figures