Cub Survival in a Wild Leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) Population

TL;DR

This study tracked the survival of Indian leopard cubs in a reserve forest in India, finding that their survival improves as they grow older.

Contribution

The study provides new survival rate data for Indian leopard cubs in a fragmented habitat using trail camera data and statistical analysis.

Findings

The first-year survival rate of cubs was 74%, showing early life is most dangerous.

The second-year survival rate increased to 83%, indicating better chances as cubs age.

Overall, 61% of cubs survived to become independent after two years of parental care.

Abstract

We studied the survival of young Indian leopard cubs in the Jhalana Reserve Forest, India, during their first two years of life. Using data from trail cameras collected over four years (2018–2021), we calculated survival rates with a statistical method to identify when cubs are most at risk. All adults and cubs included in this study were identified at the individual level based on the rosette patterns on their flanks and their facial markings. We found that during the first year, the survival rate of the cubs was about 74%, indicating that this period is particularly challenging for their survival. In the second year, the survival rate improved to around 83%, showing that the cubs are more likely to survive as they grow older. Overall, 61% of the cubs survived in our population to become independent after two years of parental care. These findings are important for creating effective conservation strategies to protect leopard cubs in fragmented habitats.

We investigated the survival of cubs in a wild Indian leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) population in the Jhalana Reserve Forest (JRF), India. The research focuses on analyzing the survival of leopard cubs during their first two years of life. Survival functions were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method based on data collected with trail cameras over four years from 2018 to 2021. We found that the mean survival probability of cubs during the first year of life was 0.739, indicating that this period is particularly challenging for their survival. In the second year, the survival probability increased to 0.831, reflecting an improvement in survival as the cubs grew older. The combined survival rate over the two-year period, calculated as the product of the first- and second-year survival rates, was 0.618. These findings highlight the critical periods in the early life stages of leopard cubs, which are essential for developing effective conservation strategies in fragmented habitats to enhance their survival.

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