# Predictors of thyroid cancer survival in Saudi Arabia: A retrospective 10-year analysis

## TL;DR

This study identifies key factors affecting thyroid cancer survival in Saudi Arabia using a 10-year dataset, highlighting age, cancer type, and metastasis as critical predictors.

## Contribution

The study provides a detailed 10-year retrospective analysis of thyroid cancer survival in Saudi Arabia, identifying specific predictors unique to the region.

## Key findings

- The 5-year survival rate for localized papillary thyroid carcinoma was 96.5%, while anaplastic thyroid carcinoma had extremely low survival rates.
- Age at diagnosis, tumor morphology, and metastasis were significant predictors of survival in thyroid cancer patients.
- Most thyroid cancer cases in Saudi Arabia were localized and papillary in nature, with a majority of patients being women under 50.

## Abstract

Thyroid cancer (TC) is becoming more prevalent in Saudi Arabia, currently ranking among the top three cancers affecting women. Despite its rising prevalence, there has been limited assessment of the factors influencing the survival rate (SR) among the Saudi population over an extended period. Therefore, this study aims to address this critical gap in knowledge by identifying the factors affecting the SR of TC, comparing the SR with previous studies, and exploring potential areas for improving the SR of patients.

A retrospective study analyzed secondary data from patients diagnosed with TC, as recorded in the King Abdulaziz Medical City Cancer Registry in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, over 10 years from 2009 to 2018.

Of the total 665 TC cases, the mean age at diagnosis was 46.2 years (±SD 16), and most patients were women (78.5%), with the majority being under 50 years old. The most common type of cancer was papillary thyroid carcinoma, comprising 88.6% of all TCs. Over half of the cases were localized to one of the lobes of the thyroid gland, with almost equal frequency between the two lobes. The 5-year SR of localized papillary thyroid carcinoma reached 96.5%, in contrast to the extremely low SR of anaplastic thyroid carcinoma, where most patients died within a few months of the diagnosis. Factors such as morphology, tumor extension, male gender, and age at diagnosis significantly impacted patient survival, as analyzed by the Kaplan–Meier test (p < 0.001). Compared to other types of cancer, those with anaplastic thyroid carcinoma had a lower SR.

The SR of TC patients is predicted by factors such as their age, morphological type, and the presence of distant metastasis.