A prognostic nomogram for patients with HR+ mucinous breast carcinoma based on the SEER database and a Chinese cohort study

TL;DR

This study creates a tool to predict survival in HR+ mucinous breast cancer patients and finds that pre-surgery chemotherapy doesn't improve long-term outcomes.

Contribution

A novel nomogram model for HR+ mucinous breast carcinoma prognosis and evidence that neoadjuvant chemotherapy offers no survival benefit.

Findings

A nomogram model with 8 factors accurately predicts survival in HR+ mucinous breast cancer patients.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy does not improve overall or cancer-specific survival compared to adjuvant chemotherapy.

The model was validated in both SEER and Chinese patient cohorts, showing consistent performance.

Abstract

The study aimed to develop a nomogram model for individual prognosis prediction in patients with hormone receptors positive (HR+) mucinous breast carcinoma (MBC) and assess the value of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in this context.

A total of 6,850 HR+ MBC patients from the SEER database were identified and randomly (in a 7:3 ratio) divided into training cohorts and internal validation cohorts. 77 patients were enrolled from the Chongqing University Cancer Hospital as the external validation cohort. Independent risk factors affecting overall survival (OS) were selected using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, and nomogram models were constructed and validated. A propensity score matching (PSM) approach was used in the exploration of the value of NAC versus adjuvant chemocherapy (AC) for long-term prognosis in HR+ MBC patients.

Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed 8 independent prognostic factors: age, race, marital status, tumor size, distant metastasis, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. The constructed nomogram model based on these 8 factors exhibited good consistency and accuracy. In the training group, internal validation group and external validation group, the high-risk groups demonstrated worse OS (p<0.0001). Subgroup analysis revealed that NAC had no impact on OS (p = 0.18), or cancer specific survival (CSS) (p = 0.26) compared with AC after PSM.

The established nomogram model provides an accurate prognostic prediction for HR+ MBC patients. NAC does not confer long-term survival benefits compared to AC. These findings provide a novel approach for prognostic prediction and clinical practice.

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