# Forecasting Disease Burden with a Dynamic Transmission Model of Human Papillomavirus and Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis in the United States

## TL;DR

This paper uses a dynamic model to forecast how HPV vaccination in the US will reduce the burden of respiratory papillomatosis diseases over time.

## Contribution

The novel contribution is adapting and validating a model to forecast the long-term impact of HPV vaccination on JORRP and AORRP in the US.

## Key findings

- HPV vaccination between 2007 and 2021 saved an estimated 1393 lives and USD 672 million in treatment costs.
- The model predicts a 95% reduction in JORRP and AORRP incidence by 2040.
- Between 2040 and 2121, only 3–11 JORRP and 36–267 AORRP cases are expected in the US.

## Abstract

Juvenile- and adult-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (JORRP and AORRP) are rare but serious conditions that are caused by oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. The proliferation of wart-like growths throughout the respiratory tract can result in medical problems, including death. The current treatment scheme is surgery, though prevention of HPV infection through vaccination is available. A previously developed model for JORRP and AORRP was adapted to the United States using data on disease burden and HPV infection. The model was validated against post-vaccination reductions in disease and used to forecast the future burden of JORRP and AORRP, estimating the impact that HPV vaccination will have on these diseases. Between 2007 (the beginning of HPV vaccination in the US) and 2021, this model estimates that approximately 1393 lives, 22,867 Quality-Adjusted-Life-Years, and over USD 672 million in treatment costs have been saved by HPV vaccination. There is also a substantial reduction in JORRP and AORRP burden, with a 95% reduction in incidence by 2040. Moreover, between 2040 and 2121, the model predicts 3–11 total cases of HPV6/11-related JORRP in the US, and 36–267 total cases of HPV6/11-related AORRP. HPV vaccination in the United States has driven, and will continue to drive, substantial reductions in the public health and economic burden of HPV6/11-related JORRP and AORRP.