Qualitative comparative analysis of policies implemented by 26 European countries during the 2020 great lockdown

TL;DR

This study examines why 26 European countries implemented lockdown policies differently during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Contribution

The paper introduces a novel QCA-based analysis of political and governance factors influencing lockdown policy adoption during a public health crisis.

Findings

Countries with concentrated political power were more likely to implement lockdowns.

In politically fragmented systems, state fragility increased the likelihood of lockdowns.

Factors like pandemic severity and healthcare access had lesser influence on lockdown decisions.

Abstract

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, from March 1 to April 15, 2020, significant variations emerged among countries regarding the implementation of lockdown policies. During this period, viewed strictly from an epidemiological perspective, lockdown measures are considered the most effective means of containing a pandemic. However, the adoption of such measures varied, raising questions about whether the reluctance or failure of countries to implement lockdown policies reflected a disregard for epidemiological knowledge or stemmed from an inability to enforce these measures.

This article employs Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) with 26 European countries as case studies to investigate under what combination of conditions a country would implement lockdown policies.

The QCA results identify three distinct combinations of conditions that lead countries to implement lockdown measures. First, countries with relatively concentrated political power are more likely to implement lockdown policies. Among the 10 countries governed by a majority party or majority coalition within a two-party or moderate multi-party system, seven implemented lockdown policies. Second, in cases of relatively dispersed political power, countries facing state fragility risks are more likely to implement lockdown policies. Among the eight countries that meet both conditions, five implemented lockdown policies. Finally, factors such as political heritage, severity of the pandemic, demographic composition, healthcare access, quality standards, and the ruling party’s ideology play a lesser role in the decision to enact lockdown measures.

This article offers a novel perspective on the dynamics of party politics and state capacity in the context of decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. It contributes to a deeper understanding of the intricate relationship between political systems and public health crisis management, highlighting how various political and governance factors influence the adoption of public health interventions during crises.

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