# Nonlinear impacts of climate anomalies on oil palm productivity

## TL;DR

This study shows how climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña can reduce oil palm productivity in Malaysia, with effects varying based on farm practices and timing.

## Contribution

The first detailed analysis of nonlinear ENSO impacts on oil palm yields at the estate level using long-term administrative data.

## Key findings

- El Niño and La Niña conditions significantly reduced oil palm yields when ENSO indices were extreme.
- Production risks were linked to pre-harvest exposure to extreme ENSO levels over multiple time windows.
- Labor-intensive estates and those without fertilizer investment were more vulnerable to ENSO effects.

## Abstract

Oil palm contributes to various global needs as one of the most productive oil crops, but there exist ongoing concerns regarding its yield reductions and associated environmental impacts resulting from land conversion. This is the first detailed report investigating the nonlinear threats to estate-level oil palm yields posed by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a major driver of climate variability. Using the Malaysian Palm Oil Board administrative records on monthly performances reported by oil palm estates through the e-submissions portal spanning from January 2015 to June 2023, we focused on elucidating the impacts of ENSO on fresh fruit bunch yield, oil extraction rate, and oil yield. We found that both El Niño and La Niña conditions, characterized by extreme levels of ENSO indices cumulated over lags of 0–23 months prior to harvest, were associated with statistically significant reductions in yields. Lag association patterns unveiled that production risks were linked to pre-harvest exposure to extreme ENSO indices in various time windows. Subgroup analyses further revealed that the effects were pronounced in labor-intensive estates and those lacking fertilizer investments. This study underscores the necessity for adaptation strategies in response to future climate anomalies.

•There was little evidence on the role of climate anomalies in oil palm productivity at the estate level.•This is the first detailed report of how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the yields of oil palm in 2015–2023.•Associations of ENSO measures with fresh fruit bunch and oil yields were non-linear with nearly inverted-U shapes.•Extreme ENSO levels were associated with reduced yields in various pre-harvest time windows.•Labor intensity, fertilizer investment, and tree age can confer the susceptibility of ENSO exposure.

There was little evidence on the role of climate anomalies in oil palm productivity at the estate level.

This is the first detailed report of how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the yields of oil palm in 2015–2023.

Associations of ENSO measures with fresh fruit bunch and oil yields were non-linear with nearly inverted-U shapes.

Extreme ENSO levels were associated with reduced yields in various pre-harvest time windows.

Labor intensity, fertilizer investment, and tree age can confer the susceptibility of ENSO exposure.