# Unveiling the spatial distribution and transboundary pathways of FMD serotype O in Western China and its bordering countries

## TL;DR

This study predicts the spread of FMD serotype O in Western China and neighboring countries, identifying key pathways and risk factors for better disease control.

## Contribution

The study is the first to use a niche model to predict FMD serotype O's spatial distribution and transboundary pathways in the region.

## Key findings

- FMD serotype O risk is higher in Central Asian countries and correlates with population variables.
- FMD serotype O survival is seasonal at low altitudes and sensitive to temperature at high altitudes.
- Ten transboundary least-cost pathways were identified across Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and China.

## Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe, highly contagious viral disease of livestock that has a significant economic impact on domestic animals and threatens wildlife survival in China and border countries. However, effective surveillance and prevention of this disease is often incomplete and unattainable due to the cost, the great diversity of wildlife hosts, the changing range and dynamics, and the diversity of FMDV. In this study, we used predictive models to reveal the spread and risk of FMD in anticipation of identifying key nodes to control its spread. For the first time, the spatial distribution of FMD serotype O was predicted in western China and border countries using a niche model, which is a combination of eco-geographic, human, topographic, and vegetation variables. The transboundary least-cost pathways (LCPs) model for ungulates in the study area were also calculated. Our study indicates that FMD serotype O survival is seasonal at low altitudes (March and June) and more sensitive to temperature differences at high altitudes. FMD serotype O risk was higher in Central Asian countries and both were highly correlated with the population variables. Ten LCPs were obtained representing Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and China.