Use of an emulated trial to investigate the association between use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonates and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

TL;DR

A study in Australia found that continuing nitrogen-based bisphosphonate use may lower the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer, especially the serous type, compared to discontinuing the treatment.

Contribution

The study uses an emulated trial design to reduce confounding and assess the association between continued bisphosphonate use and ovarian cancer risk.

Findings

Continued use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonates was associated with a 13% lower risk of epithelial ovarian cancer overall.

Continued use was linked to a 29% lower risk of serous epithelial ovarian cancer compared to discontinued use.

The observed risk reduction remained consistent over a 9-year follow-up period.

Abstract

Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is the eighth most common cancer in women, with poor survival outcomes. Observational evidence suggests that nitrogen-based bisphosphonate (NBB) use may be associated with reduced risk of EOC, particularly the endometrioid and serous histotypes; however, confounding by indication is a concern. An alternative approach to investigate the chemo-preventive potential of NBBs is to emulate a target trial by identifying all women who initiate use of NBBs and investigate the risk of EOC for continued users compared with discontinued users.

Using population-based linked data, we identified all Australian women aged over 50 years who first used NBBs over 2004–12. We used the year after first use to define treatment for each woman as either continued or discontinued use. We emulated randomization using stabilized inverse probability weights to balance the treatment groups using covariates including age, comorbidities and socioeconomic status. We followed women from treatment assignment until EOC diagnosis, death or 31 December 2013. We assessed the risk of EOC (overall and by histotype) using flexible parametric time-to-event models allowing for time-varying effects, and produced time-varying coefficients.

Of the 313 383 women in the study, 472 were diagnosed with EOC during follow-up (261 serous EOC), with an average age at diagnosis of 72 years. Continued use of NBBs was associated with reduced risk of EOC overall (HR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.69, 1.10), and serous EOC (HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.53, 0.96), compared with discontinued treatment, with estimates remaining constant over the 9-year follow-up.

Results from our emulated trial suggest that in women who initiated NBB treatment, those who continued use had 13% and 29% lower hazards of being diagnosed with EOC overall and serous EOC, respectively, compared with women who discontinued use.

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