# Bayesian Modeling and Estimation of Spatial Risk for Hospitalization and Mortality from Ischemic Heart Disease in Paraná, Brazil

## TL;DR

This study uses Bayesian spatial analysis to identify high-risk areas for heart disease hospitalization and death in Brazil's Paraná state.

## Contribution

The novel use of Bayesian spatial modeling in Paraná reveals localized IHD risks linked to socioeconomic factors.

## Key findings

- Small and medium-sized municipalities showed elevated relative risks for IHD hospitalization and mortality.
- Higher hospitalization and mortality rates were observed in white men aged 40–59 years.
- A negative association was found between the Municipal Performance Index and IHD outcomes.

## Abstract

Despite significant advancements in understanding risk factors and treatment strategies, ischemic heart disease (IHD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide, particularly within specific regions in Brazil, where the disease is a burden. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the risk of hospitalization and mortality from IHD in the state of Paraná (Brazil), using spatial analysis to identify areas with higher risk based on socioeconomic, demographic and health variables.

This is an ecological study based on secondary and retrospective IHD hospitalization and mortality data obtained from the Brazilian Hospitalization and Mortality Information Systems during the 2010–2021 period. Data were analyzed for 399 municipalities and 22 health regions in the state of Paraná. To assess the spatial patterns of the disease and identify relative risk (RR) areas, we constructed a risk model by Bayesian inference using the R-INLA and SpatialEpi packages in R software.

A total of 333,229 hospitalizations and 73,221 deaths occurred in the analyzed period, and elevated RR of hospitalization (RR = 27.412, CI 21.801; 34.466) and mortality (RR = 15.673, CI 2.148; 114.319) from IHD occurred in small-sized municipalities. In addition, medium-sized municipalities also presented elevated RR of hospitalization (RR = 6.533, CI 1.748; 2.006) and mortality (RR = 6.092, CI 1.451; 2.163) from IHD. Hospitalization and mortality rates were higher in white men aged 40–59 years. A negative association was found between Municipal Performance Index (IPDM) and IHD hospitalization and mortality.

Areas with increased risk of hospitalization and mortality from IHD were found in small and medium-sized municipalities in the state of Paraná, Brazil. These results suggest a deficit in health care attention for IHD cases in these areas, potentially due to a low distribution of health care resources.