# Using Acidosis as a Surrogate for or Supplement to the Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis Scoring Prediction System Has a Nonsignificant Effect

## TL;DR

This study examines whether acidosis can improve the prediction of acute pancreatitis severity and outcomes, but finds only minor improvements.

## Contribution

The study evaluates acidosis as a potential supplement to the BISAP score for acute pancreatitis severity prediction.

## Key findings

- Adding venous bicarbonate, AG, and CAG slightly improves BISAP score predictions for ICU admission and hospital LOS.
- Incorporating acidosis metrics does not significantly enhance BISAP's ability to predict pancreatitis severity.
- CAG addition had the largest impact on predicting ICU admission and hospital LOS.

## Abstract

Currently, risk stratification calculators for acute pancreatitis (AP) can at best predict acute pancreatitis mortality at 12 hours from the presentation. Given the severe morbidity associated with AP, the identification of additional prognostic indicators, which may afford earlier prediction in length of stay (LOS) and mortality, is desired. Metabolic acidosis can be a prognostic marker for the severity of AP, and venous bicarbonate can reliably and accurately be substituted for arterial base deficit to detect metabolic acidosis. Since serum bicarbonate, anion gap (AG), and corrected AG (CAG) are routinely obtained upon presentation to the emergency department and often daily in the hospital, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 443 patients, evaluating if venous bicarbonate could predict the severity of pancreatitis as well as mortality, admission to the ICU, ICU LOS, and hospital LOS. The inclusion of venous bicarbonate, AG, and CAG in the first 12 hours only slightly improved the predictive capabilities of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score for these secondary outcomes. None of our incorporations of acidemia improved severity predictions more than the BISAP alone. Adding CAG to BISAP scoring had the largest effect on predicting ICU admission and hospital LOS (area under the curve (AUC): 1.12 (confidence interval (CI) 95%: 1.06-1.19), p <.001 and AUC 1.02 (CI 95% 1.01-1.04), p <.001; respectively). ICU LOS was not impacted by the addition of AG, CAG, or venous bicarbonate. In-hospital death (n=12) was too small to be determined.