# Crop booms as regime shifts

## TL;DR

This paper explores sudden expansions of new crops, called crop booms, using complex systems theory to understand their causes and suggest management strategies.

## Contribution

The study introduces a new framework for understanding crop booms as regime shifts, emphasizing social feedbacks and thresholds.

## Key findings

- Crop booms are driven by internal feedbacks like imitation and land rushes.
- Preconditions and triggers explain the occurrence and timing of booms.
- Management interventions can be applied at different stages of a boom.

## Abstract

A crop boom is a sudden, nonlinear and intense expansion of a new crop. Despite their large impacts, boom-bust dynamics are not well understood; booms are largely unpredictable and difficult to steer once they unfold. Based on the striking resemblances between land regime shifts and crop booms, we apply complex systems theory, highlighting the potential for regime shifts, to provide new insights about crop boom dynamics. We analyse qualitative and quantitative data of rubber and banana plantation expansion in two forest frontier regions of northern Laos. We show that preconditions, including previous booms, explain the occurrence (why) of booms, and triggers like policy and market changes explain their timing (when). Yet, the most important features of booms, their intensity and nonlinearity (how), strongly depended on internal self-reinforcing feedbacks. We identify built-in feedbacks (neighbourhood effects and imitation) and emergent feedbacks (land rush) and show that they were social in nature, multi-scale from plot to region and subject to thresholds. We suggest that these are regular features of booms and propose a definition and causal-mechanistic explanation of crop booms, examining the overlap between booms and regime shifts and the role of frontiers. We then identify opportunities for management interventions before, during and after booms.