# Big bang, low bar—risk assessment in the public arena

## TL;DR

This paper highlights how public discussions often ignore the principle of considering unlikely but catastrophic risks, especially in the context of artificial intelligence.

## Contribution

The paper emphasizes the importance of not neglecting low-probability, high-impact risks in public risk assessments.

## Key findings

- Public discourse frequently overlooks the principle of considering catastrophic risks, even when they are improbable.
- Recent debates on AI risks provide clear examples of this oversight.
- The issue is not unique to AI but is particularly evident in these discussions.

## Abstract

One of the basic principles of risk management is that we should always keep an eye on ways that things could go badly wrong, even if they seem unlikely. The more disastrous a potential failure, the more improbable it needs to be, before we can safely ignore it. This principle may seem obvious, but it is easily overlooked in public discourse about risk, even by well-qualified commentators who should certainly know better. The present piece is prompted by neglect of the principle in recent discussions about the potential existential risks of artificial intelligence. The failing is not peculiar to this case, but recent debates in this area provide some particularly stark examples of how easily the principle can be overlooked.