# A Longitudinal Study of CogEvo’s Prediction of Cognitive Decline in Older Adults

## TL;DR

This study shows that CogEvo, a computer-based screening tool, can predict cognitive decline in older adults with high specificity, though it may miss some cases.

## Contribution

The study longitudinally validates CogEvo's ability to predict cognitive decline in older adults with minimal professional involvement.

## Key findings

- Participants with CogEvo grade 4 had significantly higher rates of cognitive decline compared to those with grade ≤3.
- CogEvo grade 4 showed 50% sensitivity and 93.6% specificity in predicting cognitive decline.
- The predictive relationship remained significant after adjusting for baseline MMSE scores and other confounders.

## Abstract

The predictive abilities of computer-based screening devices for early cognitive decline (CD) in older adults have rarely been longitudinally examined. Therefore, this study examined the ability of CogEvo, a short-duration, computer-based cognitive screening device requiring little professional involvement, to predict CD among community-dwelling older adults. We determined whether 119 individuals aged ≥ 65 years living in Japanese rural communities who scored ≥ 24 on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) at baseline developed CD by annually administering the MMSE to them. CD was defined as an MMSE score of ≤23. At baseline, the overall CogEvo judgment grade, with lower grades indicating better cognitive function, was calculated from the results of various cognitive tasks. Over 2 years, 10 participants developed CD. Participants with grades of 4 had a higher percentage of CD cases than those with grades of ≤3 (p < 0.01). This relationship remained significant after controlling for possible confounders, including the MMSE score at baseline. The sensitivity and specificity of the CogEvo grade cutoff of 4 were 50.0% and 93.6%, respectively. In conclusion, CogEvo may be an efficient tool for identifying individuals at a high risk for dementia. The possibility of missing CD cases should be considered when using CogEvo for screening.