Global climate change‐driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation

TL;DR

This study examines how climate change affects the habitat of Limassolla leafhoppers in Asia, showing both expansion and contraction in their range and suggesting conservation strategies.

Contribution

The study introduces a comprehensive analysis of Limassolla distribution under climate change scenarios using multiple ecological niche models and identifies key conservation areas.

Findings

Limassolla's suitable habitat will expand and contract under different climate scenarios, with significant area changes by the 2050s and 2090s.

The distribution core of Limassolla is predicted to shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction due to climate change.

Precipitation during the warmest quarter is the most influential factor affecting Limassolla's distribution.

Abstract

Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5‐8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1‐2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions.

This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the distribution of Limassolla based on different Shared Socio‐economic Pathways and climate scenarios, incorporating theories and methods from insect ecology, environmental ecology, and biogeography. The results indicated that Limassolla is mainly distributed in East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, and the precipitation of warmest quarter has been found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction, with the distribution core shifting toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction.

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