# Predictive biomarker of mortality in children with infectious diseases: a nationwide data analysis

## TL;DR

This study analyzed nationwide data to find biomarkers that predict mortality in children with infectious diseases, finding that some common biomarkers are not reliable.

## Contribution

The study evaluates the predictive power of biomarkers for mortality in children with infectious diseases using a large real-world dataset.

## Key findings

- C-reactive protein and white blood cell counts showed limited ability to predict mortality.
- pH, prothrombin time-international normalized ratio, and procalcitonin demonstrated strong predictive capabilities.
- The study suggests future research should explore blood gas and coagulation markers for mortality prediction.

## Abstract

Biomarkers play a crucial role in the early identification of high-risk children with infectious diseases. Despite their importance, few studies evaluated biomarkers' capabilities in predicting mortality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the biomarkers' predictive capabilities for mortality in children with infectious diseases. From an inpatient database covering ≥200 acute-care hospitals in Japan, we included children who underwent blood culture, and received antimicrobial treatment between 2012 and 2021. Biomarkers' results from the day of the initial blood culture were used. Biomarker discriminative capabilities were assessed using the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). Of 11,365 eligible children with presumed infection, 1,378 (12.1%) required mechanical ventilation or vasoactive agents within 2 days of blood culture, and 100 (0.9%) died during admission. Of all children, 10,348 (91.1%) had community-onset infections and 1,017 (8.9%) had hospital-onset infections. C-reactive protein and white blood cell demonstrated limited discriminatory capabilities with AUCs of 0.44 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38–0.51] and 0.45 (95% CI: 0.39–0.52). In contrast, pH, prothrombin time-international normalized ratio, and procalcitonin exhibited strong discriminatory capabilities with AUCs of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.65–0.90), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.70–0.84) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.29–1.00). In conclusions, our real-world data analysis suggested that C-reactive protein and white blood cell may not be reliable indicators for predicting mortality in children with presumed infection. These findings could warrant future studies exploring promising biomarkers, including those from blood gas analyses, coagulation studies and procalcitonin.