Using the illness-death model to estimate age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of diabetes in Mexico from 2003 to 2015

TL;DR

This study estimates diabetes incidence rates in Mexico from 2003 to 2015 using an illness-death model, finding stable overall rates but higher increases in women aged 40–59.

Contribution

A novel application of the illness-death model to estimate diabetes incidence rates using prevalence and mortality data in Mexico.

Findings

Age-standardized diabetes incidence rates were similar for men and women in 2003 but increased more in women by 2015.

The highest diabetes incidence rates were observed in the 60–69 age group for both men and women.

Diabetes incidence rates in Mexico remained stable overall from 2003 to 2015.

Abstract

We aimed to estimate the age-specific and age-standardized incidence rate of diabetes for men and women in Mexico between 2003 and 2015, and to assess the relative change in incidence of diabetes between 2003 and 2015.

We use a partial differential equation describing the illness-death model to estimate the incidence rate (IR) of diabetes for the years 2003, 2009 and 2015 based on prevalence data from National Health Surveys conducted in Mexico, the mortality rate of the Mexican general population and plausible input values for age-specific mortality rate ratios associated with diabetes.

The age-standardized IR of diabetes per 1000 person years (pryr) was similar among men (IRm) and women (IRw) in the year 2003 (IRm 6.1 vs. IRw 6.5 1000/pryr), 2009 (IRm: 7.0 vs. IRw: 8.4 1000/pryr), and in 2015 (IRm 8.0 vs. IRw 10.6 1000/pryr). The highest incident rates were observed among men and women in the 60–69 age group.

Overall, the incidence rate of diabetes in Mexico between the years 2003 and 2015 remained stable. However, rates were markedly higher among women in the age group 40–49 and 50–59 in the year 2015 compared with rates in 2003.

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