# Fuzzy random sensitivity analysis for the overall structure reliability of reinforced concrete freezing wellbores in deep alluvium based on hidden Markov model

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a new fuzzy random sensitivity analysis method to improve the reliability assessment of deep underground concrete structures.

## Contribution

The study proposes a fuzzy random reliability model and integrates a hidden Markov model for better analysis of structural stability in deep alluvium.

## Key findings

- Concrete compressive strength, thick-diameter ratio, and reinforcement ratio positively affect structural reliability.
- Soil depth negatively correlates with the reliability of reinforced concrete wellbores.
- The fuzzy random sensitivity model provides a more accurate assessment of structural stability under uncertainty.

## Abstract

To address the shortcomings of traditional reliability theory in characterizing the stability of deep underground structures, the advanced first order second moment of reliability was improved to obtain fuzzy random reliability, which is more consistent with the working conditions. The traditional sensitivity analysis model was optimized using fuzzy random optimization, and an analytical calculation model of the mean and standard deviation of the fuzzy random reliability sensitivity was established. A big data hidden Markov model and expectation-maximization algorithm were used to improve the digital characteristics of fuzzy random variables. The fuzzy random sensitivity optimization model was used to confirm the effect of concrete compressive strength, thick-diameter ratio, reinforcement ratio, uncertainty coefficient of calculation model, and soil depth on the overall structural reliability of a reinforced concrete double-layer wellbore in deep alluvial soil. Through numerical calculations, these characteristics were observed to be the main influencing factors. Furthermore, while the soil depth was negatively correlated, the other influencing factors were all positively correlated with the overall reliability. This study provides an effective reference for the safe construction of deep underground structures in the future.