# Predicting higher child BMI z-score and obesity incidence in Malaysia: a longitudinal analysis of a dynamic cohort study

## TL;DR

This study in Malaysia finds that a child's initial BMI is the strongest predictor of future obesity, suggesting universal prevention efforts in early childhood are most effective.

## Contribution

The study identifies that baseline BMI z-score is a stronger predictor of future BMI and obesity than parental or sociodemographic factors in Malaysian children.

## Key findings

- Higher baseline BMI z-score strongly predicts higher follow-up BMI z-score over time.
- Parental obesity, but not overweight, is linked to increased child BMI z-score in specific developmental stages.
- Parental obesity is a strong predictor of obesity incidence in early to late adolescence but not in younger children.

## Abstract

To target public health obesity prevention, we need to predict who might become obese i.e. predictors of increasing Body Mass Index (BMI) or obesity incidence. Predictors of incidence may be distinct from more well-studied predictors of prevalence, therefore we explored parent, child and sociodemographic predictors of child/adolescent BMI z-score and obesity incidence over 5 years in Malaysia.

The South East Asia Community Observatory in Segamat, Malaysia, provided longitudinal data on children and their parents (n = 1767). Children were aged 6–14 years at baseline (2013-14) and followed up 5 years later. Linear multilevel models estimated associations with child BMI z-score at follow-up, adjusting for baseline BMI z-score and potential confounders. Predictors included parent cardiometabolic health (overweight/obesity, central obesity, hypertension, hyperglycaemia), and socio-demographics (ethnicity, employment, education). Logistic multilevel models explored predictors of obesity incidence.

Higher baseline BMI z-score predicted higher follow-up BMI z-score both in childhood to late adolescence (0.60; 95% CI: 0.55, 0.65) and early to late adolescence (0.76; 95% CI: 0.70, 0.82). There was inconsistent evidence of association between child BMI z-score at follow-up with parent cardiometabolic risk factors independent of baseline child BMI z-score. For example, maternal obesity, but not overweight, predicted a higher BMI z-score in childhood to early adolescence (overweight: 0.16; 95% CI: -0.03, 0.36, obesity: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.61), and paternal overweight, but not obesity, predicted a higher BMI z-score in early to late adolescence (overweight: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.43, obesity: 0.16; 95% CI: -0.10, 0.41). Parental obesity consistently predicted five-year obesity incidence in early to late adolescence, but not childhood to early adolescence. An adolescent without obesity at baseline with parents with obesity, had 3–4 times greater odds of developing obesity during follow-up (incidence OR = 3.38 (95% CI: 1.14–9.98, mother) and OR = 4.37 (95% CI 1.34–14.27, father) respectively).

Having a higher BMI z-score at baseline was a stronger predictor of a higher BMI z-score at follow-up than any parental or sociodemographic factor. Targeting prevention efforts based on parent or sociodemographic factors is unwarranted but early childhood remains a key period for universal obesity prevention.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-024-18917-9.