# A study protocol for predictors of post-discharge mortality among children aged 5–14 years admitted to tertiary hospitals in Tanzania: A prospective observational cohort study

## TL;DR

This study aims to understand factors that predict child mortality after hospital discharge in Tanzania, focusing on children aged 5–14 years.

## Contribution

The study introduces a prospective observational design to identify predictors of post-discharge mortality in older children in Tanzania.

## Key findings

- The study will determine the post-discharge mortality rate among children aged 5–14 years in Tanzania.
- It will identify socio-demographic and clinical predictors of mortality within three months of discharge.
- Findings may inform policy and future prediction models for post-discharge mortality in older children.

## Abstract

Globally, millions of children and adolescents die every year from treatable and preventable causes. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 55% of deaths of children aged 5–14 years in 2017. Despite this high burden, minimal effort has been directed toward reducing mortality among older children and adolescents in comparison to under-fives. Mortality rates of children post-discharge vary between 1–18% in limited-resource countries and are reported to exceed in-hospital mortality. In Tanzania, there is limited data regarding post-discharge mortality and its predictors among children aged 5–14 years.

This study aims to determine the post-discharge mortality rate and its predictors among children aged 5–14 years admitted to pediatric wards at MNH, MOI, and JKCI.

This will be a prospective observational cohort study that will be conducted among children aged 5–14 years admitted to pediatric wards at Muhimbili National Hospital, Jakaya Kikwete Cardiac Institue, and Muhimbili Orthopedic Institue in Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania. Data will be collected using a structured questionnaire and will include socio-demographic characteristics, clinical factors, and patients’ outcomes. Post-discharge follow-up will be done at months 1, 2, and 3 after discharge via phone call. Data will be analyzed using SPSS version 23. The association of demographic, social economic, and clinical factors with the outcome of all causes, 3 months post-discharge mortality will be determined by Cox regression, and survival rates will be displayed through Kaplan-Meier curves.

This study will determine post-discharge mortality among children aged 5–14 years and its predictors in Tanzania. This information is expected to provide baseline data that will be useful for raising awareness of clinicians on how to prioritize and plan a proper follow-up of children following hospital discharge. These data may also be used to guide policy development to address and reduce the high burden of older children and adolescent mortality and may be used for future studies including those aiming to develop prediction models for post-discharge mortality among older children and adolescents.