Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inbound air travel to Canada

TL;DR

This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic affected air travel to Canada, showing a sharp decline followed by a gradual recovery as restrictions eased.

Contribution

The study provides a detailed analysis of how travel restrictions during the pandemic impacted inbound air travel trends to Canada.

Findings

Inbound air travel to Canada dropped by 90% at the start of the pandemic and slowly recovered.

Travel restrictions in March 2020 caused a sharp decline, while easing restrictions in August 2021 led to a recovery in travel volumes.

By the end of the study period, travel patterns had nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Abstract

Commercial air travel can result in global dispersal of infectious diseases. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, many countries implemented border measures, including restrictions on air travel, to reduce the importation risk of COVID-19. In the context of inbound air travel to Canada, this study aimed to: 1) characterize travel trends before and during the pandemic, and 2) statistically assess the association between travel volumes and travel restrictions during the pandemic.

Monthly commercial air travel volume data from March 2017 to February 2023 were obtained from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). National and airport-level travel trends to Canada were characterized by inbound travel volumes, the number of countries contributing travellers and the ranking of the top ten countries contributing travellers across the study period, by six year-length subperiod groupings (three pre-pandemic and three pandemic). Using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models, interrupted time series (ITS) analyses assessed the association between major travel restrictions and travel volumes by including variables to represent changes to the level and slope of the time series.

The pre-pandemic inbound travel volume increased by 3% to 7% between consecutive subperiods, with three seasonal peaks (July–August, December–January, March). At the onset of the pandemic, travel volume decreased by 90%, with the number of contributing countries declining from approximately 200 to 140, followed by a slow recovery in volume and seasonality. A disruption in the ranking of countries that contributed travellers was also noticeable during the pandemic. Results from the ITS analysis aligned with the timing of travel restrictions as follows: implementation in March 2020 coincided with a sharp reduction in volumes, while the easing of major restrictions, starting with the authorization of fully vaccinated travellers from the United States to enter Canada in August 2021, coincided with an increase in the slope of travel volumes. Descriptive and statistical results suggest a near-return of pre-pandemic travel patterns by the end of the study period.

Study results suggest resilience in commercial air travel into Canada. Although the COVID-19 pandemic led to a disruption in travel trends, easing of travel restrictions appeared to enable pre-pandemic trends to re-emerge. Understanding trends in air travel volumes, as demonstrated here, can provide information that supports preparedness and response regarding importation risk of infectious pathogens.

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