Trends in police complaints and arrests on New York City subways, 2018 to 2023: an interrupted time-series analysis

TL;DR

This study examines how the NYC subway's safety complaints and arrests changed during the pandemic and after a new safety plan was introduced.

Contribution

The study provides new insights into the impact of the Subway Safety Plan and the pandemic on subway safety metrics in NYC.

Findings

Complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau increased by 84% after the pandemic declaration.

The Subway Safety Plan led to a rise in harassment arrests and a decrease in arrests of White individuals and in Manhattan.

Complaint rates remained elevated even after the Subway Safety Plan was implemented.

Abstract

Public transportation use is influenced by perceptions of safety. Concerns related to crime on New York City (NYC) transit have risen following NYC’s COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration in 2020, leading to declines in subway ridership. In response, the most recent mayoral administration implemented a Subway Safety Plan in 2022. This study aimed to quantify the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Subway Safety Plan on rates of complaints to and arrests by the New York City Police Department (NYPD) Transit Bureau.

Using publicly available data on complaints and arrests, we conducted interrupted time-series analyses using autoregressive integrated moving average models applied to monthly data for the period from September 2018 to August 2023. We estimated changes in the rates of complaints to and arrests by the NYPD Transit Bureau before and after: (1) the COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration (i.e., March 2020), and (2) the announcement of the Subway Safety Plan (i.e., February 2022). We also examined trends by complaint and arrest type as well as changes in proportion of arrests by demographic and geographic groups.

After the COVID-19 pandemic declaration, there was an 84% increase (i.e., an absolute increase of 6.07 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 1.42, 10.71) in complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau, including a 99% increase (0.91 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.42, 1.41) in complaints for assault and a 125% increase in complaints for harassment (0.94 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.29, 1.60). Following the Subway Safety Plan there was an increase in the rate of arrests for harassment (0.004 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.001, 0.007), as well as decreases in the proportion of arrests for individuals racialized as White (− 0.02, CI − 0.04, − 0.01) and proportion of arrests in the borough of Manhattan (− 0.13, CI − 0.17, − 0.09).

The increased rates of complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic remained elevated following the enactment of the Subway Safety Plan. Further evaluation efforts can help identify effective means of promoting safety on public transportation.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40621-024-00501-9.

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