Transitioning to adulthood: Are conventional benchmarks as protective today as they were in the past?

TL;DR

This study examines whether traditional markers of success, like education and stable jobs, still help reduce poverty among young adults in the U.S. today as they did in the past.

Contribution

The study compares the effectiveness of conventional benchmarks across two generations and identifies demographic and economic factors influencing poverty rates.

Findings

Benchmarks of success are as predictive of reduced poverty today as in the past.

Achieving more benchmarks increases the likelihood of reduced young adult poverty.

Economic changes over time contribute to higher poverty rates for young adults today.

Abstract

More young adults in the United States are studying beyond high school and working full-time than in the past, yet young adults continue to have high poverty rates as they transition to adulthood. This study uses longitudinal data on two cohorts of young adults from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Study of Youth to assess whether conventional benchmarks associated with economic success—gaining an education, finding stable employment, and delaying childbirth until after marriage—are as predictive of reduced poverty today as they were in the past. We also explore differences in the protective effect of the benchmarks by race/ethnicity, gender, and poverty status while young. We find that, on average, the benchmarks associated with economic success are as predictive of reduced poverty among young adults today as they were for the prior generation; however, demographics and features of the economy have contributed to higher poverty rates among today's young adults.

•Benchmarks of success are as predictive of reduced poverty today as in the past.•Achieving more benchmarks increases the likelihood of reduced young adult poverty.•Being Black and poor as a youth explain young adult poverty more than some benchmarks.•Economic changes over time contribute to higher poverty rates for young adults today.

Benchmarks of success are as predictive of reduced poverty today as in the past.

Achieving more benchmarks increases the likelihood of reduced young adult poverty.

Being Black and poor as a youth explain young adult poverty more than some benchmarks.

Economic changes over time contribute to higher poverty rates for young adults today.

Figures