COVID-19 in India: Epidemiological reflections from initial 170 million consecutive test results

TL;DR

This study analyzes 170 million COVID-19 test results in India to understand how the virus affects different age groups and genders.

Contribution

The study introduces new insights into the epidemiology of COVID-19 in India using large-scale testing data.

Findings

The probability of testing negative after a positive result was 82% at 14 days and 85% at 21 days.

The majority of cases (78.29%) were in the working-age group (18–60 years).

The proportion of patients over 50 years increased significantly after September 2020.

Abstract

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) played a crucial role in streamlining testing and diagnosis, formulating guidelines, and devising management strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, ICMR designed and developed a comprehensive data management tool for collecting testing data in a standardized format from all laboratories across the country. The current report is a retrospective analysis of the testing data generated by the ICMR. The study's main objectives are to understand the probability of a person testing negative based on their age after an initial positive test and to assess the varied impact and duration of the disease in people of different age groups and genders.

Anonymized data on the testing for COVID were analyzed. The P-to-P is the longest time interval between two consecutive positive tests for a patient without any negative test in between the positives. P-to-Plast is the time between the first positive and last positive test, as opposed to P-to-P, here we are looking at the first and last positive tests that might or might not be consecutive. P-to-N intervals is the time between the first positive and first negative test of a patient.

India conducted 170,914,170 tests during the study-period (until December 29, 2020). After excluding invalid test results and duplicates, there were 11,101,603 (6.5%) positive and 156,542,352 (93.5%) negative test-results performed upon 150,086,257 unique individuals. A negative-report following a positive-test was available in 12.69%. Nearly three-fourths of the cases (78.29%) belonged to the working-age group (18–60 years). The proportion of patients >50 years old has risen from 26.06 to 35.03%, with a steep rise beyond September 2020. Gender-ratio among the positives was 1.73:1 which was neutral in neonates < 7-days (age). The gender ratio was skewed in-favor-of males in the initial months with a reverse trend thereafter and with increasing age of patients. The mean P-to-P, P-to-Plast, and P-to-N durations were 12.7 + 4.3, 13.3 + 4.6, and 14.2 + 4.9 days for individuals with P-to-P duration of 1–4 weeks. The probability of testing negative was 82 & 85% at 14 & 21 days after the first-positive-test respectively with no gender bias.

The current study has highlighted some vital aspects of COVID-19 epidemiology in India. This study will add to the current understanding of the virus in the absence of pre- existing information on the novel virus and the disease per se.

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