Assessing the impact of different contact patterns on disease transmission: Taking COVID-19 as a case
Fenfen Zhang, Juan Zhang, Mingtao Li, Zhen Jin, Yuqi Wen
TL;DR
This paper studies how different human contact patterns affect the spread of diseases like COVID-19, using real-world data from Yangzhou City.
Contribution
The study introduces a model that incorporates regular and random contacts, age heterogeneity, and household structures to better understand disease transmission.
Findings
Young and middle-aged adults in households of six showed the strongest transmission ability.
Increasing random contact proportion helps control infectious diseases during intervention phases.
The model provides insights into the effectiveness of prevention measures taken during the Yangzhou outbreak.
Abstract
Human-to-human contact plays a leading role in the transmission of infectious diseases, and the contact pattern between individuals has an important influence on the intensity and trend of disease transmission. In this paper, we define regular contacts and random contacts. Then, taking the COVID-19 outbreak in Yangzhou City, China as an example, we consider age heterogeneity, household structure and two contact patterns to establish discrete dynamic models with switching between daytime and nighttime to depict the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 in population. We studied the changes in the reproduction number with different age groups and household sizes at different stages. The effects of the proportion of two contacts patterns on reproduction number were also studied. Furthermore, taking the final size, the peak value of infected individuals in community and the peak value of…
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Taxonomy
TopicsCOVID-19 epidemiological studies · Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models · SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research