Prognostic factors associated with early recurrence following liver resection for colorectal liver metastases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

TL;DR

This study identifies factors that increase the risk of early cancer recurrence after liver surgery for colorectal cancer liver metastases, helping improve patient care and treatment strategies.

Contribution

A comprehensive meta-analysis identifying high-quality evidence for prognostic factors of early recurrence after liver resection for colorectal liver metastases.

Findings

Poor tumor differentiation, bilobar metastases, and major hepatectomy are strongly linked to early recurrence.

High CEA and CA199 levels, lymph node metastases, and surgical complications increase recurrence risk.

30.2% of patients experience early recurrence within 6 months after liver resection.

Abstract

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the 3rd most common malignancy with the liver being the most common site of metastases. The recurrence rate of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) after liver resection (LR) is notably high, with an estimated 40% of patients experiencing recurrence within 6 months. In this context, we conducted a meta-analysis to synthesize and evaluate the reliability of evidence pertaining to prognostic factors associated with early recurrence (ER) in CRLM following LR.

Systematic searches were conducted from the inception of databases to July 14, 2023, to identify studies reporting prognostic factors associated with ER. The Quality in Prognostic Factor Studies (QUIPS) tool was employed to assess risk-of-bias for included studies. Meta-analysis was then performed on these prognostic factors, summarized by forest plots. The grading of evidence was based on sample size, heterogeneity, and Egger’s P value.

The study included 24 investigations, comprising 12705 individuals, during an accrual period that extended from 2007 to 2023. In the evaluation of risk-of-bias, 22 studies were rated as low/moderate risk, while two studies were excluded because of high risk. Most of the studies used a postoperative interval of 6 months to define ER, with 30.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24.1–36.4%) of the patients experiencing ER following LR. 21 studies were pooled for meta-analysis. High-quality evidence showed that poor differentiation of CRC, larger and bilobar-distributed liver metastases, major hepatectomy, positive surgical margins, and postoperative complications were associated with an elevated risk of ER. Additionally, moderate-quality evidence suggested that elevated levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19–9 (CA199), lymph node metastases (LNM) of CRC, and a higher number of liver metastases were risk factors for ER.

This review has the potential to enhance the efficacy of surveillance strategies, refine prognostic assessments, and guide judicious treatment decisions for CRLM patients with high risk of ER. Additionally, it is essential to undertake well-designed prospective investigations to examine additional prognostic factors and develop salvage therapeutic approaches for ER of CRLM.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-024-12162-4.

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