# TNF-α is a predictive marker in distinguishing myeloproliferative neoplasm and idiopathic erythrocytosis/thrombocytosis: development and validation of a non-invasive diagnostic model

## TL;DR

This study developed a non-invasive diagnostic model using TNF-α and other factors to distinguish between myeloproliferative neoplasm and idiopathic erythrocytosis/thrombocytosis.

## Contribution

The novel contribution is the integration of TNF-α with clinical parameters into a validated nomogram for differentiating MPN and IE/IT.

## Key findings

- MPN patients had significantly higher TNF-α levels than IE/IT patients.
- A nomogram combining TNF-α, platelet count, age, and spleen size achieved a high C-index of 0.979.
- TNF-α levels correlate with the severity of myelofibrosis in MPN patients.

## Abstract

Philadelphia-chromosome negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) exhibit phenotypic similarities with JAK/STAT-unmutated idiopathic erythrocytosis and thrombocytosis (IE/IT). We aimed to develop a clinical diagnostic model to discern MPN and IE/IT.

A retrospective study was performed on 77 MPN patients and 32 IE/IT patients in our center from January 2018 to December 2023. We investigated the role of hemogram, cytokine and spleen size in differentiating MPN and IE/IT among newly onset erythrocytosis and thrombocytosis patients. Independent influencing factors were integrated into a nomogram for individualized risk prediction. The calibration and discrimination ability of the model were evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curve.

MPN had significantly higher TNF-α level than IE/IT, and the TNF-α level is correlated with MF-grade. Multivariable analyses revealed that TNF-α, PLT count, age, size of spleen were independent diagnostic factors in differentiating MPN and IE/IT. Nomograms integrated the above 4 factors for differentiating MPN and IE/IT was internally validated and had good performance, the C-index of the model is 0.979.

The elevation of serum TNF-α in MPN patients is of diagnostic significance and is correlated with the severity of myelofibrosis. The nomogram incorporating TNF-α with age, PLT count and spleen size presents a noteworthy tool in the preliminary discrimination of MPN patients and those with idiopathic erythrocytosis or thrombocytosis. This highlights the potential of cytokines as biomarkers in hematologic disorders.