Urban COVID-19 endemism in Petrópolis: detection of an endemic focus by spatial analysis

TL;DR

The study found a persistent area in Petrópolis where SARS-CoV-2 cases remained concentrated during the first 18 months of the pandemic.

Contribution

The paper introduces a spatial analysis approach to detect an urban endemic focus of SARS-CoV-2 in a Brazilian city.

Findings

A 4 km² area in central Petrópolis consistently showed high SARS-CoV-2 case density.

Despite sporadic case dispersion, the hotspot remained stable over 18 months.

Geospatial kernel analysis revealed persistent endemic patterns in urban settings.

Abstract

This study aimed to identify an ecosystem of urban endemism that explains the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 during the first 18 months of the pandemic in the municipality of Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We analyzed official records of monthly COVID-19 cases, georeferenced according to the residence address of each confirmed case. Monthly heat maps identifying points with different spatial densities of the disease were constructed by applying the kernel methodology. Heat spots with five intensity levels were identified for the spatial density of cases. The points of highest intensity, known as hotspots, remained constant throughout the period in a polygon of approximately 4 km2 located in the center of the city of Petrópolis. In conclusion, we found that the highest concentration of cases remained in the same location over time, despite the sporadic dispersion of cases within the municipal territory.

Se realizó un estudio con el objetivo de identificar un ecosistema de endemismo urbano que explique la persistencia del SARS-CoV-2 durante los primeros 18 meses de la pandemia en el municipio de Petrópolis, Río de Janeiro, Brasil. Se analizaron los registros oficiales de casos mensuales de COVID-19, georreferenciados según el domicilio de residencia de cada caso confirmado y se elaboraron mapas de calor mensuales que identifican puntos con diferentes densidades espaciales de la enfermedad mediante la aplicación de la metodología de kernel. Se identificaron puntos de calor con cinco niveles de intensidad para la densidad espacial de casos. Los puntos de mayor intensidad, conocidos como «hotspots», se mantuvieron constantes durante todo el período en un polígono de aproximadamente 4 km2 ubicado en el centro de la ciudad de Petrópolis. En conclusión, se encontró que la mayor concentración de casos se mantuvo en la misma ubicación a lo largo del tiempo, a pesar de la dispersión esporádica de los casos en el territorio municipal.

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