The impact of the 2022 spring COVID-19 booster vaccination programme on hospital occupancy in England: An interrupted time series analysis

TL;DR

The 2022 spring booster vaccination in England reduced hospital occupancy from COVID-19, but did not prevent the peak of the epidemic.

Contribution

This study evaluates the population-level impact of a booster programme on hospital occupancy, considering seasonal patterns and incomplete coverage.

Findings

The booster programme reduced hospital occupancy by 23.7% in the 6–12 weeks after rollout.

Without the programme, an estimated 380,104 additional hospital bed-days would have been occupied.

The programme delayed the peak but did not reduce its magnitude.

Abstract

Regular booster vaccination programmes help protect the most vulnerable from COVID-19 and limit pressure on health systems. Existing studies find booster doses to be effective in preventing hospital admissions and deaths but focus on individual effects, failing to consider the population impact of incomplete vaccination coverage and seasonal patterns in disease transmission. We estimated the effectiveness of the 2022 spring booster vaccination programme, available for those aged 75 years and older, residents in care homes, and adults with weakened immune systems, on COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England. Booster vaccine coverage in the eligible population increased rapidly in the months after rollout (from 21st March 2022), flattening out just below 80% by July 2022. We used interrupted time series analysis to estimate a 23.7% overall reduction in the rate of hospital occupancy for COVID-19 following the programme, with a statistically significant benefit in the 6–12 weeks following rollout. In the absence of the programme, we calculate that a total of 380,104 additional hospital bed-days would have been occupied by patients with COVID-19 from 4th April to 31st August 2022 (95% CI: –122,842 to 1,034,590). The programme delayed and shortened the duration of the peak while not reducing its magnitude. In sensitivity analyses adjusting the start of the post-intervention period or removing the rate of COVID-19 infection in the over 60s from the model, the effect of the spring booster programme on hospital bed occupancy remained similar. Our findings suggest that timing is a critical consideration in the implementation of COVID-19 booster programmes and that policymakers cannot rely on intermittent booster vaccination of high-risk groups alone to mitigate anticipated peaks in hospital pressure due to COVID-19 epidemics.

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