# Risk model based on genes regulating the response of tumor cells to T-cell-mediated killing in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

## TL;DR

This study identifies a gene-based risk model to predict survival and immunotherapy response in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients.

## Contribution

A novel gene-based risk model is developed to predict ESCC patient outcomes and immunotherapy response using GRTTKs.

## Key findings

- A risk model using eight GRTTKs reliably predicts overall survival in ESCC patients.
- High-risk patients show greater immune infiltration and better response to immunotherapy and chemotherapy.
- Differential expression of GRTTKs like CDK2, TCEA1, and TMEM209 is confirmed in ESCC tissues.

## Abstract

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) represent a promising therapeutic approach for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). However, the subpopulations of ESCC patients expected to benefit from ICIs have not been clearly defined. The anti-tumor cytotoxic activity of T cells is an important pharmacological mechanism of ICIs. In this study, the prognostic value of the genes regulating tumor cells to T cell-mediated killing (referred to as GRTTKs) in ESCC was explored by using a comprehensive bioinformatics approach. Training and validation datasets were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO), respectively. A prognostic risk scoring model was developed by integrating prognostic GRTTKs from TCGA and GEO datasets using a ridge regression algorithm. Patients with ESCC were divided into high- and low-risk groups based on eight GRTTKs (EIF4H, CDK2, TCEA1, SPTLC2, TMEM209, RGP1, EIF3D, and CAPZA3) to predict overall survival in the TCGA cohort. Using Kaplan-Meier curves, receiver operating characteristic curves, and C-index analysis, the high reliability of the prognostic risk-scoring model was certified. The model scores served as independent prognostic factors, and combining clinical staging with risk scoring improved the predictive value. Patients in the high-risk group exhibited abundant immune cell infiltration, including immune checkpoint expression, antigen presentation capability, immune cycle gene expression, and high tumor inflammation signature scores. The high-risk group exhibited a greater response to immunotherapy and neoadjuvant chemotherapy than the low-risk group. Drug sensitivity analysis demonstrated lower IC50 for AZD6244 and PD.0332991 in high-risk groups and lower IC50 for cisplatin, ATRA, QS11, and vinorelbine in the low-risk group. Furthermore, the differential expression of GRTTK-related signatures including CDK2, TCEA1, and TMEM209 were verified in ESCC tissues and paracancerous tissues. Overall, the novel GRTTK-based prognostic model can serve as indicators to predict the survival status and immunotherapy response of patients with ESCC, thereby providing guidance for the development of personalized treatment strategies.