Weak evidence of density dependent population regulation when using the ability of two simple density dependent models to predict population size

TL;DR

This study finds weak evidence that population size is regulated by density dependence using simple models across many datasets.

Contribution

The paper evaluates two simple density-dependent models against density-independent ones using over 16,000 populations.

Findings

Density-dependent models outperformed density-independent ones in only 4 out of 14 datasets.

Neither density-dependent model was statistically significantly better than density-independent models.

The study suggests more complex models are needed to assess density dependence comprehensively.

Abstract

The relative importance of density dependence regulation in natural population fluctuations has long been debated. The concept of density dependence implies that current abundance is determined by historical abundance. We have developed four models—two density dependent and two density independent—to predict population size one year beyond the training set and used predictive performance on more than 16,000 populations from 14 datasets to compare the understanding captured by those models. For 4 of 14 datasets the density dependent models make better predictions (i.e., density dependent regulated) than either of the density independent models. However, neither of the density dependent models is statistically significantly superior to density independent models for any of the 14 datasets. We conclude that the evidence for widespread density dependent population regulation in the forms represented by these two simple density-dependent models is weak. However, the density dependent models used here—the Logistic and Gompertz models—are simple representations of how population density might regulate natural populations and only examine density-dependent effects on population size. A comprehensive assessment of the relative importance of density-dependent population regulation will require testing the predictive ability of a wider range of density-dependent models including models examining effects on population characteristics other than population size.

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