# Application of a nomogram model for the prediction of 90-day poor outcomes following mechanical thrombectomy in patients with acute anterior circulation large-vessel occlusion

## TL;DR

This study creates a prediction model to identify patients at high risk of poor outcomes after a specific stroke treatment.

## Contribution

A novel nomogram model is developed and validated to predict 90-day poor outcomes after mechanical thrombectomy for stroke patients.

## Key findings

- The nomogram includes five significant predictors of poor outcomes: age, glucose level, NIHSS score, unsuccessful recanalization, and early neurological deterioration.
- The model achieved a concordance index of 0.763 in the training set and 0.804 in the validation set, indicating good predictive performance.

## Abstract

The past decade has witnessed advancements in mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for acute large-vessel occlusions (LVOs). However, only approximately half of the patients with LVO undergoing MT show the best/independent 90-day favorable outcome. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting 90-day poor outcomes in patients with LVO treated with MT.

A total of 187 patients who received MT were retrospectively analyzed. Factors associated with 90-day poor outcomes (defined as mRS of 4–6) were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyzes. One best-fit nomogram was established to predict the risk of a 90-day poor outcome, and a concordance index was utilized to evaluate the performance of the model. Additionally, 145 patients from a single stroke center were retrospectively recruited as the validation cohort to test the newly established nomogram.

The overall incidence of 90-day poor outcomes was 45.16%, affecting 84 of 186 patients in the training set. Moreover, five variables, namely, age (odds ratio [OR]: 1.049, 95% CI [1.016–1.083]; p = 0.003), glucose level (OR: 1.163, 95% CI [1.038–1.303]; p = 0.009), baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score (OR: 1.066, 95% CI [0.995–1.142]; p = 0.069), unsuccessful recanalization (defined as a TICI grade of 0 to 2a) (OR: 3.730, 95% CI [1.688–8.245]; p = 0.001), and early neurological deterioration (END, defined as an increase of ≥4 points between the baseline NIHSS score and the NIHSS score at 24 h after MT) (OR: 3.383, 95% CI [1.411–8.106]; p = 0.006), were included in the nomogram to predict the potential risk of poor outcomes at 90 days following MT in LVO patients, with a C-index of 0.763 (0.693–0.832) in the training set and 0.804 (0.719–0.889) in the validation set.

The proposed nomogram provided clinical evidence for the effective control of these risk factors before or during the process of MT surgery in LVO patients.