The Deep Learning-Based Dual-Branch Multimodal Fusion Model for Solar Flare Prediction

TL;DR

This paper introduces a dual-branch deep learning model that fuses magnetogram and magnetic parameter data to improve solar flare prediction accuracy, especially for intense X-class flares.

Contribution

The study presents a novel multimodal fusion model with cross-attention and cross-scale interactions, enhancing multi-scale feature representation for solar flare forecasting.

Findings

Achieves TSS of 0.661 and HSS of 0.658 for binary C-class prediction.

Attains TSS of 0.780 and HSS of 0.775 for multi-class X-class flares.

Demonstrates superior performance and generalization over existing methods.

Abstract

Solar flares are intense eruptive events caused by the rapid release of magnetic energy, often impacting Earth's space environment through electromagnetic radiation and high-energy particles. Accurate flare prediction is critical for space weather forecasting. However, many existing deep learning approaches often rely on single-modal inputs or shallow feature fusion, limiting their ability to capture complementary information. In this study, we propose a dual-branch multimodal fusion deep learning model for predicting 24-hour solar flares. The model integrates magnetograms and magnetic parameters through cross-attention mechanisms, followed by cross-scale interactions at the feature level to enhance multi-scale representation. It is designed to perform both binary prediction of $\geqslant$ C-class flares and multi-class classification of C, M, and X-class flares. To ensure rigorous evaluation, we employ a stratified group five-fold cross-validation scheme to preserve class representativeness and adopt a splitting-before-sampling strategy based on NOAA active region numbers to prevent data leakage. Experimental results show that the model achieves a TSS of 0.661 and an HSS of 0.658 for binary $\geqslant$ C-class prediction, while notably attaining a TSS of 0.780 and an HSS of 0.775 for X-class flares in the multi-class task. Compared with existing approaches, the model demonstrates superior performance in predicting intense X-class flares, effectively suppresses the false alarm rate, and exhibits strong generalization capability.